电力技改工程项目风险管理研究
发布时间：2018-07-25 12:18
【摘要】：随着我国经济的不断发展,电力作为一种社会基础能源的供应量也在与日俱增。电力负荷严重超载,电力供需矛盾紧张,给人民生活和经济发展造成很大影响。为改善这种状况,有效缓解电力供需紧张的局面,在限制火电装机容量增加的同时,保证已有机组的稳定运行就显得尤为重要,而电厂自身的各项技术改造工程的顺利进行就是重中之重。目前我国电力技改工程项目风险管理尚处于初级阶段,项目管理者往往大多是生产管理经验比较丰富,而风险管理意识淡薄,管理能力较差,因此只有通过对电力技术改造工程项目中的风险进行深入研究,采用系统的、动态的方法对技改工程项目风险进行全面管理,及早的识别主要风险因素,并进行评估,有针对性的采取风险应对措施减轻风险,才能确保技改工程项目顺利进行,所以在现阶段对电力技改工程项目风险管理进行深入研究显得极为迫切。 电力工程项目在实施过程中因受到诸多方面的不确定性因素的影响,使技改工程的实际目标与预期目标产生一定的差异,这种由不确定性引起的项目目标的差异称为电力工程项目风险。本文首先介绍了风险管理的一般理论与电力技改工程项目风险的特点以及进行风险管理的必要性,然后通过风险识别找出电力技改工程项目中的主要风险因素并在此基础上构建风险指标体系,结合模糊层次综合评价模型对电力技改工程项目风险进行评价,经过计算得出此次除尘变系统改造工程的各风险因素等级,针对具体风险项目提出防范和应对措施。本文的研究将会对电力行业技改工程项目的风险管理具有借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy in China, the supply of electricity as a social basic energy is increasing day by day. The power load is seriously overloaded and the contradiction between power supply and demand is tense, which has a great impact on people's life and economic development. In order to improve this situation and effectively alleviate the tense situation of power supply and demand, while limiting the increase of thermal power installed capacity, it is particularly important to ensure the stable operation of existing units. And the power plant own each technical transformation project smoothly carries on is the most important. At present, the project risk management of electric power technical transformation project in our country is still in the primary stage. Most of the project managers are rich in production management experience, but the awareness of risk management is weak, and the management ability is poor. Therefore, only through the in-depth study of the risk in the electric power technical transformation project and the comprehensive management of the risk of the technical transformation project by the systematic and dynamic method, the main risk factors can be identified and evaluated as early as possible. In order to ensure the smooth progress of the technical reform project, it is very urgent to study the risk management of the electric power technical transformation project at this stage. Because of the influence of many uncertain factors in the process of implementation of electric power engineering project, the actual target of the technical reform project is different from the expected target to a certain extent. The difference of project objectives caused by uncertainty is called power engineering project risk. This paper first introduces the general theory of risk management, the characteristics of the project risk and the necessity of risk management. Then the main risk factors in the electric power technical transformation project are identified by risk identification and the risk index system is constructed on the basis of which the fuzzy hierarchy process comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate the risk of the electric power technical transformation project. The risk factor grades of the project are calculated, and the prevention and countermeasures are put forward for the specific risk items. The research in this paper will be helpful to the risk management of electric power industry technical transformation project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU71;TM73
本文编号：2143799
[Abstract]:With the development of economy in China, the supply of electricity as a social basic energy is increasing day by day. The power load is seriously overloaded and the contradiction between power supply and demand is tense, which has a great impact on people's life and economic development. In order to improve this situation and effectively alleviate the tense situation of power supply and demand, while limiting the increase of thermal power installed capacity, it is particularly important to ensure the stable operation of existing units. And the power plant own each technical transformation project smoothly carries on is the most important. At present, the project risk management of electric power technical transformation project in our country is still in the primary stage. Most of the project managers are rich in production management experience, but the awareness of risk management is weak, and the management ability is poor. Therefore, only through the in-depth study of the risk in the electric power technical transformation project and the comprehensive management of the risk of the technical transformation project by the systematic and dynamic method, the main risk factors can be identified and evaluated as early as possible. In order to ensure the smooth progress of the technical reform project, it is very urgent to study the risk management of the electric power technical transformation project at this stage. Because of the influence of many uncertain factors in the process of implementation of electric power engineering project, the actual target of the technical reform project is different from the expected target to a certain extent. The difference of project objectives caused by uncertainty is called power engineering project risk. This paper first introduces the general theory of risk management, the characteristics of the project risk and the necessity of risk management. Then the main risk factors in the electric power technical transformation project are identified by risk identification and the risk index system is constructed on the basis of which the fuzzy hierarchy process comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate the risk of the electric power technical transformation project. The risk factor grades of the project are calculated, and the prevention and countermeasures are put forward for the specific risk items. The research in this paper will be helpful to the risk management of electric power industry technical transformation project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU71;TM73
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