厂站接线可靠性分析的改进通用生成函数法
发布时间：2018-10-16 16:30
【摘要】：基于通用生成函数(universal generating function,UGF)方法和多状态系统(multi-state system,MSS)理论,提出了厂站接线可靠性评估的模型和算法,解析获得反映厂站接线整体性能的多状态概率分布表达式,据此可灵活求取系统可靠性指标。通过分析厂站接线的特点,定义了合适的性能函数和相应的算子,将各元件的连通性归并到各自起始节点上,以多项式的形式建立各节点的u函数模型,并通过节点集的u函数运算,获得综合反映厂站接线故障后果及其发生概率的多状态系统u函数;针对多环形拓扑结构中元件的备用与功率的转移,引入桥连结构及其修正计算,改进了UGF方法难以处理无向图的不足;为降低计算复杂度,通过前期对单纯串并联支路的等值和计算过程中的样本缩减技术,提高了计算效率。针对3/2接线方式的分析,及与蒙特卡罗方法计算结果的比较,验证了所提方法的正确性和有效性。
[Abstract]:Based on general-purpose generating function (universal generating function,UGF) method and multi-state system (multi-state system,MSS) theory, a model and algorithm for reliability evaluation of plant and station connection are proposed. The expression of multi-state probability distribution reflecting the overall performance of plant and station connection is obtained analytically. According to this, the reliability index of the system can be obtained flexibly. By analyzing the characteristics of the connection of the plant and station, the appropriate performance function and corresponding operator are defined, and the connectivity of each component is merged to their starting nodes, and the u function model of each node is established in the form of polynomials. Through the calculation of the u function of the node set, we obtain the u function of the multistate system which synthetically reflects the consequences and the occurrence probability of the connection fault of the plant and station, aiming at the backup and power transfer of the components in the multi-ring topology. The bridge connection structure and its modified calculation are introduced to improve the UGF method, which is difficult to deal with undirected graph. In order to reduce the computational complexity, the calculation efficiency is improved through the previous equivalent of simple series-parallel branch and the sample reduction technique in the calculation process. The correctness and validity of the proposed method are verified by the analysis of 3 / 2 connection mode and the comparison between the results of the proposed method and that of the Monte Carlo method.
【作者单位】： 电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室(山东大学);国网技术学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51077087)~~
【分类号】：TM732
本文编号：2274976
[Abstract]:Based on general-purpose generating function (universal generating function,UGF) method and multi-state system (multi-state system,MSS) theory, a model and algorithm for reliability evaluation of plant and station connection are proposed. The expression of multi-state probability distribution reflecting the overall performance of plant and station connection is obtained analytically. According to this, the reliability index of the system can be obtained flexibly. By analyzing the characteristics of the connection of the plant and station, the appropriate performance function and corresponding operator are defined, and the connectivity of each component is merged to their starting nodes, and the u function model of each node is established in the form of polynomials. Through the calculation of the u function of the node set, we obtain the u function of the multistate system which synthetically reflects the consequences and the occurrence probability of the connection fault of the plant and station, aiming at the backup and power transfer of the components in the multi-ring topology. The bridge connection structure and its modified calculation are introduced to improve the UGF method, which is difficult to deal with undirected graph. In order to reduce the computational complexity, the calculation efficiency is improved through the previous equivalent of simple series-parallel branch and the sample reduction technique in the calculation process. The correctness and validity of the proposed method are verified by the analysis of 3 / 2 connection mode and the comparison between the results of the proposed method and that of the Monte Carlo method.
【作者单位】： 电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室(山东大学);国网技术学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51077087)~~
【分类号】：TM732
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