基于《条例》的福建电网潜在事故和风险评估研究
发布时间：2018-12-15 19:01
【摘要】：《电力安全事故应急处置和调查处理条例》(题目和以下简称《条例》)的颁布对电力企业进一步保障电网安全稳定运行和可靠供电、有效规避电力事故提出了更高要求。十二五至十三五期间,福建电网正进入大跨越发展阶段,电网运行情况更加复杂,给福建电网安全稳定运行带来了更大挑战。因此掌握电网的安全水平,采取相应控制防御措施,对发展中的福建电网具有重大意义。相比于传统的安全评估方法,风险评估能够把事故发生概率和后果结合起来,一方面可以反映事故概率；另一方面可以引入电气、经济和社会指标来衡量事故后果。因此开发基于《条例》事故等级的福建电网运行风险评估系统第一期工程。该系统对福建电网进行基于风险理论的静态安全评估；并引入《条例》事故等级作为事故后果评价标准之一,根据损失负荷比例对事故进行评级,把事故概率和等级结合起来,从管理角度反映电网发生故障的可能性和后果,为高层决策提供技术支撑。目前福建电网220kV以上输电线路N-1故障不会引起《条例》所提事故,多重故障成为福建电网风险评估中需要考虑的主要问题。随着系统的增大,多重故障的组合数呈指数增长,即所谓“维数灾”问题。但是电力系统中只有少部分多重故障会破坏系统稳定运行。因此研究一种方法,有效地过滤不需关注的故障,生成一个适合计算的预想故障集,是福建电网风险评估迫切需要解决的问题。依托于该项目,本论文研究会引起其它线路过载的N-2故障集的生成方法。为叙述方便,本文把该故障集称为严重故障集。本文提出以下两种生成严重故障集的方法：通过潮流转移的快速估算来预测故障是否会引起线路过载进而进行故障集筛选；或者用潮流预测结合影响域概念,排除影响域没有交集的多重故障。方法一：较之于耗时较长的完全交流潮流计算,潮流转移预测是判断预想故障后线路是否过载的一种快速、有效的方法。经过对各种常见潮流转移预测方法比较,选择支路开断分布因子作为潮流转移预测和严重故障集筛选工具。将其用于潮流转移估算、过载支路筛选和严重故障集生成都取得了良好效果。方法二：通过理论推导,得出影响域没有交集的两条线路组合故障时可以用单重故障线性叠加近似的结论。这样大大缩小了需要详细计算的N-2故障范围。结合支路开断分布因子,发挥其估算转移潮流的速度优势,可以快速过滤不需关注的N-2故障,生成严重故障集。
[Abstract]:The promulgation of the regulations on Emergency handling and investigation and handling of Electric Power Safety Accidents (title and hereinafter referred to as "regulations") puts forward higher requirements for electric power enterprises to further ensure the safe and stable operation and reliable power supply of power networks and to effectively avoid power accidents. From the 12th Five-Year Plan to the 13th Five-Year Plan, Fujian Power Grid is entering the stage of great leapfrogging development, and the operation of the power grid is more complicated, which brings greater challenges to the safe and stable operation of Fujian Power Grid. Therefore, it is of great significance for the developing Fujian power grid to grasp the safety level of the power grid and take corresponding control and defense measures. Compared with the traditional safety assessment method, the risk assessment can combine the probability and consequence of the accident, on the one hand, it can reflect the probability of the accident; on the other hand, it can introduce electrical, economic and social indicators to measure the consequences of the accident. Therefore, the first phase of Fujian power grid operation risk assessment system based on the accident grade is developed. This system carries on the static security evaluation based on the risk theory to Fujian power grid; The accident grade is introduced as one of the criteria for evaluating the consequence of the accident. According to the loss load ratio, the accident probability and grade are combined to reflect the possibility and consequence of power network failure from the management point of view. Provide technical support for high-level decision-making. At present, the fault of transmission line N-1 above 220kV in Fujian power grid will not cause the accident mentioned in regulations, and multiple faults have become the main problems to be considered in the risk assessment of Fujian power network. With the increase of the system, the combination number of multiple faults increases exponentially, that is, the so-called "dimension disaster" problem. However, only a small number of multiple faults in the power system will destroy the stable operation of the system. Therefore, it is an urgent problem for Fujian power network risk assessment to study a method to effectively filter the unconcerned faults and generate a set of preconceived faults that are suitable for calculation. Based on this project, this paper studies the generation method of N-2 fault set which will cause overload of other lines. For convenience of description, the fault set is called serious fault set in this paper. In this paper, two methods for generating serious fault sets are put forward: the fast estimation of power flow transition is used to predict whether the fault will cause the line overload and then the fault set selection is carried out; Power flow prediction combined with the concept of influence domain is used to eliminate multiple faults where the influence domain is not intersected. Method one: compared with the time-consuming complete AC power flow calculation, power flow transfer prediction is a fast and effective method to judge whether the line is overloaded or not after the expected fault. Based on the comparison of common forecasting methods of power flow transfer, the branch break distribution factor is selected as a tool for power flow transfer prediction and serious fault set screening. It has been applied to power flow transfer estimation, overload branch selection and serious fault set generation. Method two: by theoretical derivation, it is concluded that the linear superposition of single fault can be used to approximate the combination fault of two lines with no intersection in the influence domain. This greatly reduces the range of N-2 failures that need to be calculated in detail. Combining with branch breaking distribution factor and exerting its advantage of estimating the speed of power flow, N-2 faults can be filtered quickly and serious fault sets can be generated.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73
本文编号：2381137
[Abstract]:The promulgation of the regulations on Emergency handling and investigation and handling of Electric Power Safety Accidents (title and hereinafter referred to as "regulations") puts forward higher requirements for electric power enterprises to further ensure the safe and stable operation and reliable power supply of power networks and to effectively avoid power accidents. From the 12th Five-Year Plan to the 13th Five-Year Plan, Fujian Power Grid is entering the stage of great leapfrogging development, and the operation of the power grid is more complicated, which brings greater challenges to the safe and stable operation of Fujian Power Grid. Therefore, it is of great significance for the developing Fujian power grid to grasp the safety level of the power grid and take corresponding control and defense measures. Compared with the traditional safety assessment method, the risk assessment can combine the probability and consequence of the accident, on the one hand, it can reflect the probability of the accident; on the other hand, it can introduce electrical, economic and social indicators to measure the consequences of the accident. Therefore, the first phase of Fujian power grid operation risk assessment system based on the accident grade is developed. This system carries on the static security evaluation based on the risk theory to Fujian power grid; The accident grade is introduced as one of the criteria for evaluating the consequence of the accident. According to the loss load ratio, the accident probability and grade are combined to reflect the possibility and consequence of power network failure from the management point of view. Provide technical support for high-level decision-making. At present, the fault of transmission line N-1 above 220kV in Fujian power grid will not cause the accident mentioned in regulations, and multiple faults have become the main problems to be considered in the risk assessment of Fujian power network. With the increase of the system, the combination number of multiple faults increases exponentially, that is, the so-called "dimension disaster" problem. However, only a small number of multiple faults in the power system will destroy the stable operation of the system. Therefore, it is an urgent problem for Fujian power network risk assessment to study a method to effectively filter the unconcerned faults and generate a set of preconceived faults that are suitable for calculation. Based on this project, this paper studies the generation method of N-2 fault set which will cause overload of other lines. For convenience of description, the fault set is called serious fault set in this paper. In this paper, two methods for generating serious fault sets are put forward: the fast estimation of power flow transition is used to predict whether the fault will cause the line overload and then the fault set selection is carried out; Power flow prediction combined with the concept of influence domain is used to eliminate multiple faults where the influence domain is not intersected. Method one: compared with the time-consuming complete AC power flow calculation, power flow transfer prediction is a fast and effective method to judge whether the line is overloaded or not after the expected fault. Based on the comparison of common forecasting methods of power flow transfer, the branch break distribution factor is selected as a tool for power flow transfer prediction and serious fault set screening. It has been applied to power flow transfer estimation, overload branch selection and serious fault set generation. Method two: by theoretical derivation, it is concluded that the linear superposition of single fault can be used to approximate the combination fault of two lines with no intersection in the influence domain. This greatly reduces the range of N-2 failures that need to be calculated in detail. Combining with branch breaking distribution factor and exerting its advantage of estimating the speed of power flow, N-2 faults can be filtered quickly and serious fault sets can be generated.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73
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