电网可靠性评估中计及加和特性的非参数解集负荷模型

发布时间：2019-03-12 19:00

【摘要】：负荷变动规律的机理分析及其概率建模是电网可靠性与负荷之间互动影响研究的关键。计及节点负荷变化的不确定性和相关性,开展电网可靠性量化评估,可深度揭示电网可靠性与负荷之间的耦合关系,但现有研究忽略了节点与系统负荷之间在物理机理上的关联本质,如"直接加和"特性。基于此提出电网可靠性评估的非参数解集负荷模型,该模型在节点负荷的不确定性和相关性规律描述上避开了节点负荷间相依结构(线性或非线性相关)以及系统负荷与节点负荷概率密度函数形式(正态或非正态)的假定,保持了节点负荷与系统负荷间的"直接加和"特性,可有效实现从全局系统负荷到局部节点负荷的解集,为电网可靠性评估等概率仿真模型提供了实用的负荷变动规律模型。通过对改进的RBTS和IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试系统的评估分析,验证了该模型的正确性和有效性。
[Abstract]:The mechanism analysis and probability modeling of load variation law is the key to study the interaction between power network reliability and load. Considering the uncertainty and correlation of load change of nodes, the quantitative evaluation of power network reliability can be carried out to reveal the coupling relationship between power grid reliability and load deeply. However, existing studies ignore the physical mechanism of the correlation between nodes and system loads, such as "direct summation". Based on this, a non-parametric uncollected load model for power network reliability assessment is proposed. The model avoids the assumption of the dependent structure (linear or nonlinear correlation) and the probability density function (normal or non-normal) between the system load and the node load in the description of the uncertainty and correlation law of the node load. The direct summation between the node load and the system load is maintained, and the solution set from the global system load to the local node load can be effectively realized, which provides a practical load variation law model for the equal probability simulation model of the reliability assessment of the power network. Through the evaluation and analysis of the improved RBTS and IEEE-RTS79 reliability test system, the correctness and effectiveness of the model are verified.
【作者单位】：输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学);国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(50977094) 中央高校基本科研业务费科研专项资助项目(CDJZR11150012)~~
【分类号】：TM732

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