敏感过程电压暂降响应事件及其风险的区间直觉模糊评估

发布时间：2019-05-23 03:18

【摘要】：将敏感过程受电压暂降影响的过程抽象为敏感过程电压暂降响应事件,并分析响应事件的复杂不确定性。引入过程参数变化曲线刻画过程电压暂降响应事件后果,提出响应事件后果严重程度的区间直觉模糊集刻画方法。基于敏感过程功能实现的多层次、多属性特点建立后果严重程度矩阵,并通过区间直觉模糊集成算子实现响应事件后果严重程度评估。建立以典型响应事件发生概率与其后果严重程度乘积为指标的风险评估模型,提出敏感过程电压暂降响应事件区间直觉模糊风险评估方法,实现对电压暂降可能造成的影响的定量评估。对温控过程的仿真结果证明了评估方法的正确性、可行性,该评估方法能客观、有效评估过程面临的电压暂降风险,适用性强,可为工程决策提供可靠依据。
[Abstract]:The process affected by voltage sag in sensitive process is abstracted as voltage sag response event in sensitive process, and the complex uncertainty of response event is analyzed. In this paper, the process parameter change curve is introduced to depict the event consequence of process voltage sag response, and an interval intuitionistic fuzzy set characterization method for the severity of response event consequence is proposed. Based on the multi-level and multi-attribute characteristics of sensitive process function, the consequence severity matrix is established, and the severity evaluation of response event consequence is realized by interval intuitionistic fuzzy integration operator. A risk assessment model based on the product of the occurrence probability of typical response events and the severity of its consequences is established, and a intuitionistic fuzzy risk assessment method for voltage sag response events in sensitive processes is proposed. To achieve a quantitative assessment of the possible impact of voltage sag. The simulation results of temperature control process prove the correctness and feasibility of the evaluation method. The evaluation method can objectively and effectively evaluate the voltage sag risk faced by the process, and has strong applicability, which can provide reliable basis for engineering decision-making.
【作者单位】：四川大学电气信息学院;国网福建省电力有限公司电力科学研究院;
【基金】：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20130181110004) 四川省科技厅重点科技支撑项目(2013GZ0062)~~
【分类号】：TM712

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