凤头山崩塌隐患体及治理工程风险评价

发布时间：2018-02-10 03:29

本文关键词： 崩塌失稳概率易损性风险评价　出处：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在国内外崩塌灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,本文通过对神木县凤头山崩塌隐患体进行野外实地调查和室内分析,对其进行系统的风险评价,提出了适用于凤头山崩塌隐患体以及其治理工程的风险评价方法。主要研究成果如下:⑴在野外调查、详细勘查及室内实验的基础上,通过赤平投影法、蒙特卡洛法分别分析评价了凤头山崩塌隐患体的稳定状态。通过赤平投影法定性判别该崩塌隐患体处于欠稳定状态;针对三种不同工况下的崩塌隐患体,采用蒙特卡洛法分别分析其失稳概率,计算结果表明:在天然工况下,崩塌隐患体的失稳概率为0.2942;在暴雨工况下,崩塌隐患体的失稳概率为0.5050;在地震工况下,崩塌隐患体的失稳概率为0.6092。⑵对崩塌隐患体影响范围内的承灾体的易损性进行评价。首先确定崩塌隐患体影响范围内的承灾体,并对其进行分类,进而对每一类承灾体的价值损失率进行计算,最终得到全部潜在承灾体的价值损失总值;根据上述计算结果,通过风险值的计算公式,得到凤头山崩塌隐患体在三种工况下的风险值分别为:天然工况下84.2871万元、暴雨工况下198.7190万元、地震工况下480.9061万元。⑶本文通过建立基于模糊综合评判的治理工程风险评价模型,结合层次分析法确定各项指标权重,进而深入分析治理工程风险因素的发生概率,以及这些因素对治理工程风险损失的影响程度。本文以凤头山崩塌隐患体为例,对崩塌隐患体以及相应的治理工程所存在的风险进行分析与评价;其中对于其他单体崩塌及其治理工程风险的分析与评估来说,本文采用的技术方法和研究思路有一定的参考价值、借鉴意义,并为政府决策提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the research results of risk assessment of collapse disaster at home and abroad, through field investigation and indoor analysis of the hidden danger body of Fengtou Mountain collapse in Shenmu County, this paper carries on systematic risk evaluation to it. This paper puts forward a risk evaluation method suitable for Fengtou Mountain collapse hidden danger body and its control project. The main research results are as follows: 1. On the basis of field investigation, detailed investigation and indoor experiments, the method of plain projection is adopted. The Monte Carlo method is used to analyze and evaluate the stable state of the hidden collapse body in Fengtou Mountain respectively. The hidden collapse hidden danger body is identified qualitatively by the red plane projection method. Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the probability of instability respectively. The calculated results show that the probability of instability of hidden collapse body is 0.2942 under natural condition, 0.5050 under rainstorm condition, 0.50 under earthquake condition. The failure probability of the hidden collapse body is 0.6092.2 to evaluate the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body within the scope of the collapse hidden danger body. Firstly, the disaster bearing body within the scope of the collapse hidden danger body is determined and classified. Then the value loss rate of each type of disaster bearing body is calculated, and the total value loss value of all potential disaster bearing body is obtained. According to the above calculation results, the calculation formula of risk value is used. The risk values of Fengtou mountain collapse hidden danger body under three conditions are: 842,871 yuan under natural condition, one million nine hundred and eighty-seven thousand and one hundred and ninety yuan under rainstorm condition, four million eight hundred and nine thousand and sixty-one yuan under earthquake condition. This paper establishes the risk evaluation model of governance engineering based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Combined with Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the weight of each index is determined, and then the probability of risk factors in treatment project and the influence of these factors on risk loss of treatment project are analyzed in depth. This paper takes Fengtou Mountain collapse hidden danger body as an example. To analyze and evaluate the risk of the hidden danger of collapse and the corresponding treatment project, and to analyze and evaluate the risk of the other individual collapse and its treatment project, The technical methods and research ideas adopted in this paper have certain reference value, reference significance, and provide scientific basis for government decision-making.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P642.21

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