电力设施地震经济损失快速评估

发布时间：2018-04-15 02:06

本文选题：变电站 + 输电线路　；参考：《中国地震局工程力学研究所》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力系统包括发电系统、输电系统、配电系统,是生命线系统中的重要组成部分,其一旦遭受破坏,将严重影响震后应急救援、灾民生活和灾后重建。因此,对电力设施在地震中遭受的地震破坏和经济损失进行快速评估具有重要意义。国内在相关方面的研究较少,主要原因是缺乏足够的震害资料,如有关发电厂易损性、快速评估方面的研究尚处于空白阶段,变电站、输电线路方面的研究主要集中于其功能失效或者其具体组成部件的易损性,尚缺乏系统、完整的震害快速评估模型。国外在这方面的研究虽然较为成熟,但其评估模型无法直接应用于国内的震害评估中。针对上述问题,本文提出了基于易损性的电力设施地震经济损失快速评估方法,以地震烈度作为主要输入参数,根据电力系统各部分的造价、易损性、损失比,结合全国基础数据库,分别对其进行经济损失评估,建立电力系统地震经济损失快速评估模型。本文主要研究内容和成果如下:(1)阐述了电力系统基本构成,概括介绍了电力设施在地震中的震害情况,总结了国内外目前电力设施震害评估研究现状、相关研究成果及发展趋势。(2)在综合了大量统计资料的基础上探索了省市级电网设施财产数据匹配到县区级的方法,并由此建立了可供应急评估的以县区为单位的全国电网基础数据库,该数据库包含了全国2856个区县的电网详细资产分布、地形地貌类别以及滑坡次生灾害危险性程度信息,是在无详实电网数据情况下进行灾区电网快速经济损失评估的基础。(3)集成、补充了国内外电力设施易损性方面的研究成果,确定了适合国内快速评估的各类电力设施易损性曲线。其中,补充了变电站室内设备易损性曲线并尝试给出了GIS变电站易损性曲线;火电厂、水电站由于国内研究处于空白且无相关震害资料,易损性曲线主要引用国外成果;变电站室外高压电气设备、输电线路的易损性则主要是通过对汶川地震的震害资料研究得来。(4)根据电力设施各部分的造价、易损性(损失比),将变电站分为室外高压电气设备、室内设备和房屋建筑,建立了单体变电站有详实资产、结构类型、设防条件信息和无详实信息下的经济损失快速评估模型;建立了单体输电线路考虑地震地质灾害风险的经济损失快速评估模型;建立了单体火力发电厂、水力发电站较为简易的快速评估模型。通过对汶川地震变电站样本资料的检验,验证了普通变电站总体经济损失快速评估模型的合理性。(5)结合建立的电网基础数据库,利用本文的评估模型,计算出了全国县区在地震烈度分别为6度、7度、8度、9度、10度下变电站、输电线路的总体经济损失,并将结果用ArcGIS专题图表达出来。为电力行业和政府部门防震减灾和地震应急工作提供参考。
[Abstract]:Power system, including generation system, transmission system and distribution system, is an important part of lifeline system. Once it is damaged, it will seriously affect the emergency relief after earthquake, the life of victims and the reconstruction after disaster.Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the earthquake damage and economic loss of power facilities.The main reason is the lack of sufficient seismic damage data, such as the vulnerability of power plants, the research on rapid assessment is still in the blank stage, substation, substation,The research on transmission line is mainly focused on the failure of its function or the vulnerability of its components. There is still a lack of systematic and complete rapid assessment model of earthquake damage.Although the research in this field abroad is relatively mature, its evaluation model can not be directly applied to the earthquake disaster assessment in China.In order to solve the above problems, this paper puts forward a fast method for evaluating the economic loss of power facilities based on vulnerability. The seismic intensity is taken as the main input parameter, according to the cost, vulnerability, loss ratio of each part of the power system.Combined with the national basic database, the economic loss assessment is carried out, and the rapid evaluation model of seismic economic loss of power system is established.The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: (1) the basic structure of power system is expounded, the earthquake damage of power facilities in earthquake is introduced, and the present situation of earthquake damage assessment of power facilities at home and abroad is summarized.On the basis of synthesizing a large number of statistical data, this paper explores the method of matching provincial and municipal power network facility property data to county and district level.Based on this, the basic database of national power grid, which is based on county and district, is established, which includes the detailed distribution of power grid assets, the types of landform and geomorphology, and the dangerous degree of landslide secondary disasters in 2856 districts and counties of the country.It is the foundation of rapid economic loss assessment of disaster-stricken power network without detailed power network data, which complements the research results on vulnerability of power facilities at home and abroad.The vulnerability curves of various power facilities suitable for rapid evaluation in China are determined.The vulnerability curve of substation indoor equipment is supplemented and the vulnerability curve of GIS substation is tried to be given. In thermal power plant, the vulnerability curve of hydropower station is mainly quoted from foreign achievements because the domestic research is blank and there is no related seismic damage data.For outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment in substation, the vulnerability of transmission lines is mainly obtained by studying the earthquake damage data of Wenchuan earthquake. According to the cost and vulnerability of various parts of power facilities, the substation is divided into outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment.For indoor equipment and building building, a rapid economic loss assessment model with detailed assets, structure types, security conditions and no detailed information for single substation has been established.A fast evaluation model of economic loss considering the risk of seismic and geological hazards is established for single transmission lines, and a relatively simple rapid evaluation model for single thermal power plant and hydropower station is established.Through the test of sample data of Wenchuan earthquake substation, the rationality of the rapid assessment model of general economic loss of ordinary substation is verified. The basic database of power network is established, and the evaluation model of this paper is used.The overall economic losses of transmission lines in substations with seismic intensity of 6 ~ 7 ~ 8 ~ 9 ~ 9 ~ 10 are calculated, and the results are expressed by ArcGIS thematic map.It provides reference for electric power industry and government departments in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction and earthquake emergency.
【学位授予单位】：中国地震局工程力学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P315.9;TM7

【参考文献】