基于多Agent的地震应急救援策略建模及仿真研究

发布时间：2018-07-18 11:53

【摘要】：人防物资库在和平时期可作为应急物资库使用,而在各种自然灾害中,地震这一突发自然灾害对国家公共安全有极大的危害,其突发性、破坏性、社会影响性大等特点都使得地震的应急救援变得尤其重要,从地震的防御到震后的救援工作及保障工作的展开都是有效减少人员伤亡、减轻生命财产损失、安定民心的有效途径。从地震灾害的历史救援经验中我们可以知道,震后的72小时是救援的黄金时期,也是震后抢险救灾的关键时期,尤其在余震不断、环境复杂等因素的制约下,在这段期间内如何快速进行现场救援、提高救援率、如何分配物资人员装备,更多的救助生命成为重中之重,也是现在地震研究的首要问题。目前,对地震应急救援的研究大部分集中在应急预案的制定及应急预案操作性等问题上,传统方法使用较多,且对其策略的研究相对较少。对将多Agent建模仿真应用到地震应急救援策略中的研究方面相对较少,基于此本文针对地震应急救援的现场救援和后勤物资保障阶段分别进行场景描述、分析,然后应用多Agent方法对地震应急救援进行建模,根据地震应急救援的各个影响因素及特点,将现场救援具化为救援Agent、被救援Agent、余震Agent,将后勤物资保障具化为车辆Agent、物资库Agent、灾区Agent,确定其模型结构,赋予每个Agent目应的动作及行为规则,并定义各个Agent之间的交互规则,在多Agent仿真工具Repast S中用java语言对各个Agent进行实现,对仿真参数进行设置并分析多次实验结果,通过不同实验结果的比较得出其人员配备、物资配给等地震应急救援策略,以使救援速度最快、救援率最高,从而为以后地震应急救援的预测和决策支持提供理论参考。
[Abstract]:Civil air defense stores can be used as emergency stores in peacetime. Among all kinds of natural disasters, earthquake, a sudden natural disaster, is extremely harmful to the public safety of the country, and it is sudden and destructive. The characteristics of great social influence make the emergency rescue of earthquake become particularly important. From earthquake prevention to rescue work after the earthquake and the development of support work, it is effective to reduce casualties and reduce the loss of life and property. An effective way to stabilize the people's mind. From the historical rescue experience of earthquake disasters, we can see that the 72 hours after the earthquake is the golden period of rescue and the key period of post-earthquake rescue and relief, especially under the constraints of the continuous aftershocks and the complex environment. During this period, how to carry out the field rescue quickly, how to improve the rescue rate, how to distribute the material personnel and equipment, and how to save more lives become the top priority, which is also the most important problem in the earthquake research. At present, most of the researches on earthquake emergency rescue are focused on the formulation of emergency plan and the operation of emergency plan. The traditional methods are used more frequently, and the research on its strategy is relatively less. The research on the application of multi-Agent modeling and simulation to earthquake emergency rescue strategy is relatively few. Based on this, the scene description and analysis of the scene rescue and logistics material support stage of earthquake emergency rescue are carried out respectively in this paper. Then the multi-Agent method is used to model the earthquake emergency rescue, and according to the influence factors and characteristics of earthquake emergency rescue, The scene rescue equipment is transformed into the rescue agent, the aftershock agent, the logistic material support is transformed into the vehicle, the material store, the disaster area, the model structure is determined, the action and behavior rules are assigned to each Agent, and the interaction rules between each Agent are defined. In the Agent simulation tool Repast S, the java language is used to implement each Agent. The simulation parameters are set up and the experimental results are analyzed several times. Through the comparison of different experimental results, the earthquake emergency rescue strategies such as staffing, material allocation and so on are obtained. In order to make the rescue speed the fastest and the rescue rate the highest, this paper provides a theoretical reference for the prediction and decision support of earthquake emergency rescue in the future.
【学位授予单位】：冶金自动化研究设计院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TP18;P315.9

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