一次能源消费结构调整对碳强度影响的灵敏度分析——以江苏省为例

发布时间：2018-04-08 10:50

本文选题：一次能源消费结构　切入点：碳强度　出处：《企业经济》2016年10期

【摘要】：以通径分析为基础,探讨了一次能源消费结构对碳强度的影响机理,并运用FAST分析了江苏省一次能源消费结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度。研究结论表明:煤炭消费比例是促进碳强度增长的主要因素,其他能源(水电、风电、核电等)消费比例是抑制碳强度增长的主要因素;碳强度对煤炭消费比例最敏感,其他能源消费比例次之,对天然气消费比例最不敏感。在总量不变的前提下,将单位煤炭消费比例用单位其他能源消费比例替代时,达到的碳强度降低效果最明显。因此,为了尽快达到碳强度目标,在能源消费结构优化方面,应以降低煤炭消费比例和增加其他能源消费为侧重点。同时,加速开发低碳技术,促进江苏能源结构转型,倡导低碳绿色生活方式和消费模式。
[Abstract]:Based on path analysis, the influence mechanism of primary energy consumption structure on carbon intensity is discussed, and the sensitivity of the change of primary energy consumption structure to carbon intensity in Jiangsu Province is analyzed by FAST.The results show that the proportion of coal consumption is the main factor to promote the increase of carbon intensity, the proportion of other energy sources (hydropower, wind power, nuclear power, etc.) is the main factor to restrain the growth of carbon intensity, and the carbon intensity is the most sensitive to the proportion of coal consumption.The proportion of other energy consumption followed, the proportion of natural gas consumption is the least sensitive.On the premise that the total amount is unchanged, the carbon intensity reduction effect is the most obvious when the unit coal consumption ratio is replaced by the unit other energy consumption ratio.Therefore, in order to reach the target of carbon intensity as soon as possible, in the optimization of energy consumption structure, we should focus on reducing the proportion of coal consumption and increasing other energy consumption.At the same time, we should speed up the development of low-carbon technologies, promote the transformation of Jiangsu energy structure, and advocate low-carbon green lifestyle and consumption patterns.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“城市居民节能行为影响因素及引导政策研究———以中国东部城市为例”(项目编号:71273258);国家自然科学基金项目“基于‘态度——行为’缺口修复视角的城市居民绿色出行促进政策研究”(项目编号:71473247)
【分类号】：F426.2

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