能源革命：本质探究及中国的选择方向

发布时间：2018-05-28 02:21

本文选题：能源革命 + 可再生能源　；参考：《河南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源、经济与环境三者之间联系紧密,相互促进,相互影响。依赖于以煤炭、石油为主的传统化石能源系统的发展模式,不仅为中国带来了快速的经济增长,也引起了诸如水污染、土壤污染、大气污染等环境问题,并反过来制约着国内的经济发展,同时严重影响人们的身心健康。经济发展与环境之间的不协调突显出了传统能源系统无法继续支撑可持续发展,对此,中国提出了能源革命的伟大战略。本论文主要对能源革命的本质及特征,中国引领第三次能源革命的条件,以及在第三次能源革命中所面临的路径选择进行了研究分析。能源革命与工业革命联系紧密,对此,我们聚焦于工业文明视角下分析能源革命的历程,可以更加有针对性的凝炼出能源革命的本质:能源系统之间的替代,由经济问题引发,核心技术突破推动,形成以新能源为主导地位的替代过程,导致各领域实现技术革命与相关产业兴起,从而产生工业革命。替代的关键特征是新能源的主导性与核心技术性,而中国要引领第三次能源革命还要注意到替代的层次性(能源系统内的替代与能源系统间的替代);替代的兼顾性(可替代能源种类的多样性、替代标准与实际国情三者结合);替代模式的多元化(主要分为以可再生能源为主的推广模式,和以化石能源与核能为主的高端模式)。英国引领了第一次能源革命,进而领导了第一次工业革命,美国引领了第二次能源革命,进而领导了第二次工业革命,由此可知,中国如果要领导第三次工业革命,实现中华民族的伟大复兴,就必须先引领第三次能源革命。本文就中国如何能够引领第三次能源革命做了相关研究,认为可以从相对引领和绝对引领两个方面给予考虑。相对引领是中国已经具备并需要进一步加强的优势条件,主要表现在中华民族复兴的强烈夙愿,政治体制的优越性,可再生能源储量及种类的优势,国内能源市场潜力,相关技术创新潜力等;绝对引领是中国当前需要努力争取实现的目标,主要表现在新能源技术的创新与引进,国内市场的绿色转型,加强新能源政策的激励力度与政策体系的优化,合理规划国内产业发展,转变能源利用意识等。中国只有充分发挥相对优势,积极弥补不足,才能实现对第三次能源革命的绝对引领,进而领导第三次工业革命。根据以上分析,本文采用情景分析法,从能源转型过程中政策支持在方向和力度上的差异着手,并基于能源、经济与环境三者之间的关系及其相互影响,设置政策支持与政策不支持两组情景,政策不支持情景具体表现为参照情景,而政策支持情景根据不同的侧重方向分为三个子情境,分别是技术政策情景、环境政策情景、能源政策情景,据此相应的归纳出当前能源革命的四种路径,即保守路径、温和路径、绝对路径、积极——可持续路径,经分析,认为中国有必要在温和与绝对两种路径之间寻求平衡,选择积极——可持续的发展路径。最后,结合中国当前的能源战略目标、权威性研究报告、以及工业化、城镇化进程等实际国情,在国内2010——2030年的非化石能源发展趋势的基础上,结合积极又可持续的发展路径,定性预测出中国有望于2050年可再生能源占一次能源消费比例达到50%,基本完成能源革命,最终保障中国未来能源需求与能源安全,实现经济的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The development model of traditional fossil energy system, which relies on coal and oil, not only brings rapid economic growth for China, but also causes environmental problems such as water pollution, soil pollution, large gas pollution and other environmental problems, which in turn restricts the domestic economy of the three traditional fossil energy systems, which are based on coal and oil. Development, at the same time, seriously affects people's physical and mental health. The incongruity between economic development and the environment shows that the traditional energy system cannot continue to sustain sustainable development. China has put forward a great strategy for the energy revolution. This paper is mainly about the nature and characteristics of the energy revolution, and the conditions for China to lead the third energy revolution, and The path choice faced in the third energy revolution is studied and analyzed. The energy revolution is closely linked with the industrial revolution. In this regard, we focus on the analysis of the energy revolution from the perspective of industrial civilization, and we can more pertinent the essence of the energy revolution: the substitution between the energy sources, the economic problems, the core, and the core of the energy revolution Technological breakthroughs promote the formation of an alternative process leading to new energy, which leads to the technological revolution and the rise of related industries in various fields, thus producing industrial revolution. The key feature of the substitution is the dominance and core technology of the new energy, and the third energy revolution in China should also pay attention to the level of substitution (energy system). Internal Substitution and alternative energy systems; alternative considerations (the diversity of alternative sources of energy, the combination of alternative standards and actual national conditions); the diversification of alternative models (mainly divided into renewable energy based promotion models, and high end models based on fossil energy and nuclear energy). Britain led the first energy revolution, Then leading the first industrial revolution, the United States led the second energy revolution and led the second industrial revolution. Thus, if China is to lead the third industrial revolution and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the third energy revolution must be led first. This article is on how China can lead the third energy revolution. The relative research can be considered from the two aspects of relative guidance and absolute guidance. The relative guidance is China's already possessed and need to further strengthen the advantages, mainly in the strong long cherished wish of the Chinese nation's revival, the superiority of the political system, the advantages of the renewable energy reserves and types, the potential of the domestic energy market, This is the potential for technological innovation and so on; absolutely leading is the goal that China needs to strive to achieve at present, mainly in the innovation and introduction of new energy technology, the green transformation of the domestic market, the strengthening of the incentive and policy system of the new energy policy, the rational planning of the development of domestic industry and the change of the consciousness of energy utilization. We can realize the absolute lead of the third energy revolution and lead the third industrial revolution. According to the above analysis, this paper uses the situational analysis method, the difference between the direction and the strength of the policy support in the process of energy transformation, and the relationship between the three parties based on energy, economy and the environment. And their mutual influence, the policy support and policy do not support two groups of scenarios, the policy does not support the situation specific performance as the reference scene, and the policy support scenario is divided into three sub situations according to the different emphasis direction, namely the technical policy scenario, the environment policy scenario, the energy policy scenario, accordingly the corresponding induction of the current energy revolution. The four paths, namely, the conservative path, the mild path, the absolute path, the sustainable path, and the analysis, think that it is necessary for China to seek a balance between the moderate and absolute two paths and to choose a positive and sustainable development path. Finally, it combines China's current source of energy strategic objectives, authoritative research reports, and industrialization, cities and towns. On the basis of the development trend of non fossil energy in China from 2010 to 2030 and combined with the positive and sustainable development path, it is qualitatively predicted that China is expected to reach 50% of the primary energy consumption in 2050, basically complete the energy revolution, and ultimately guarantee China's future energy demand and energy security. To realize the sustainable development of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.2

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