CMIP5模式对拉尼娜生命史模拟能力的评估

发布时间：2017-12-28 05:20

本文关键词：CMIP5模式对拉尼娜生命史模拟能力的评估　出处：《大气科学学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用19个CMIP5模式输出资料,评估模式对于拉尼娜事件特殊生命史发展过程的模拟能力。评估结果显示,仅有少数模式可以很好地再现拉尼娜事件缓慢衰减并再次增强的生命史发展过程,而多数模式中拉尼娜事件持续衰减直至消亡。观测分析结果表明,一个可能导致拉尼娜再次增强的原因是风场强迫作用下的海洋赤道波动过程。模拟能力较好的模式可以建立起"SST—对流—风场"正反馈过程,使得拉尼娜事件再次发展。而模拟能力较弱的模式中正反馈过程无法建立,因此拉尼娜事件最终消亡。另一个可能导致拉尼娜事件再次增强的原因是海洋平均经圈环流的作用。模拟能力较好的模式可以很好地模拟出气候态海洋经圈环流强度,因此海洋平均经向冷平流会帮助赤道地区负海温距平再次增强。而模拟能力较弱的模式中海洋经圈环流强度较弱,因此赤道地区负海温距平持续衰减,最终回归到气候态。
[Abstract]:19 CMIP5 model output data were used to assess the model's ability to simulate the development process of the special life history of La Nina event. The assessment results show that only a few models can well reproduce the slow decline of the La Nina event and enhance the life history development process, while most of the La Nina events continue to decay until they die out. The results of observation and analysis show that a possible cause of the re enhancement of La Nina is the wave process of the ocean equator under the force of the wind field. The model with better simulation ability can establish a positive feedback process of "SST - convective - wind field", which makes the La Nina event develop again. But the positive feedback process in the weak simulation model is not established, so the La Nina event eventually dies out. Another possible cause of the re - enhancement of La Nina event is the effect of the ocean average meridional circulation. The model with better simulation ability can simulate the intensity of the meridional circulation in the weather condition well. Therefore, the mean meridional cold advection of the ocean will help the equatorial region to enhance the negative SST. In the model with weak simulation ability, the circulation intensity of the ocean meridian is weak, so the negative sea temperature anomaly in the equatorial region continues to decay, and finally returns to the climate state.
【作者单位】：上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;南京信息工程大学;
【基金】：江苏省自然科学基金重点项目(BK20150062)
【分类号】：P732
【正文快照】： 引用格式:黄玉蓉,张福颖,陈明诚,2017.CMIP5模式对拉尼娜生命史模拟能力的评估[J].大气科学学报,40(3):356-368.Huang Y R,Zhang F Y,Chen M C,2017.Evaluation of simulation capability of CM IP5 multi-models for La Ni1a events[J].Trans At-(2)南京信息工程大学,江苏南

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