基于风险分析的海洋平台结构鲁棒性评价与控制

发布时间：2017-12-31 23:13

  本文关键词：基于风险分析的海洋平台结构鲁棒性评价与控制　出处：《安全与环境学报》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 安全工程 风险鲁棒性 海洋平台结构 随机模拟 鲁棒性控制

【摘要】：针对海洋平台服役周期内突发致损事件"小概率,高风险"的非比例后果特性,综合考虑常规疲劳退化与突发致损的耦合作用,定量分析了局部突发致损的直接后果及结构倒塌失效的潜在间接后果。从风险分析理论的角度,提出海洋平台结构风险鲁棒性指标,并基于Monte-Carlo随机模拟,建立了风险鲁棒性的评价方法及评价流程。通过相应算例,分析海洋平台结构全寿命周期内风险鲁棒性指标的动态特征及影响因素,并讨论了检修行为对结构鲁棒性控制的作用。模拟示例结果表明,在平台服役后期,初始损伤及疲劳退化对风险鲁棒性指标的影响愈加显著,完好平台结构的风险鲁棒性指标明显高于含初始损伤平台,至服役的第30年,两种平台的风险鲁棒性指标分别由1下降至0.913和0.67。同时,4种不同突发事件单独作用下的模拟结果表明,对风险鲁棒性影响最为显著的突发事件是爆炸,其后依次是船舶碰撞、突发火灾和重物坠落。突发事件发生后采取快修措施可有效提高其风险鲁棒性指标,且为保证平台结构维持合理的风险鲁棒性水平而采取"非完好维修"是更为经济可行的选择。
[Abstract]:In view of the non-proportional consequences of "small probability and high risk" of sudden damage events in the service cycle of offshore platforms, the coupling effect of conventional fatigue degradation and sudden damage is considered comprehensively. The direct consequences of local sudden damage and the potential indirect consequences of structural collapse failure are quantitatively analyzed. From the point of view of risk analysis theory, the risk robustness index of offshore platform structure is proposed. Based on Monte-Carlo stochastic simulation, the evaluation method and flow chart of risk robustness are established. The dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of the risk robustness index of offshore platform structures during their life cycle are analyzed, and the effect of maintenance behavior on structural robustness control is discussed. The simulation results show that it is in the late service period of the platform. The impact of initial damage and fatigue degradation on the risk robustness index is more significant. The risk robustness index of the intact platform structure is significantly higher than that of the platform with initial damage until the 30th year of service. The risk robustness index of the two platforms decreased from 1 to 0.913 and 0.67 respectively. The most significant impact on risk robustness is explosion, followed by ship collision, sudden fire and weight fall. In order to maintain a reasonable level of risk robustness of platform structure, it is more economical and feasible to adopt "non-intact maintenance".
【作者单位】： 中国石油大学海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心;中国石油大学(华东)储运与建筑工程学院;中国石油大学(华东)理学院;天津大学建筑工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51209218,51579246,51509184) 青岛市应用基础研究计划项目(青年专项)(14-2-4-58-jch) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项(15CX05003A,15CX05065A)
【分类号】：P75
【正文快照】： 4天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072)0引言海洋平台结构在长期服役过程中可能会遭受各种突发致损事件[1-3],造成结构局部破坏,并引发一连串失效反应,甚至导致平台结构整体的连续破坏、倒塌。历史上曾发生多起平台结构的连续倒塌[4]事故,充分暴露了平台结构在抵抗初始局部破坏方，

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