2007-2012年浙南洞头沿海赤潮与气象关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 13:08

本文关键词：2007-2012年浙南洞头沿海赤潮与气象关系研究　出处：《兰州大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：赤潮是一种复杂而影响严重的海洋环境灾害。气象因素是诱发赤潮灾害的重要条件。赤潮灾害的成因及相关的预警预报防治一直是赤潮灾害研究工作的重点和难点,本文首先对洞头沿海2007-2012年的赤潮个例及气象观测资料进行了分析与研究,得出洞头独特的地理位置、海岛地形、临海化工和养殖产业以及气候条件决定了洞头沿海是个赤潮灾害高发区。并且赤潮发生时间主要在5-9月份,绝大部分发生在每年的5-6月份,同时近年来洞头沿海赤潮发生发展持续时间呈稳定增加态势。通过对洞头沿海赤潮的时空分布、气象要素影响分析,获得了洞头沿海赤潮爆发时的气象要素变化特征、大气环流变化情况及主要天气影响系统,对未来利用气象条件预报赤潮具有指导意义。其次,通过对三个赤潮个例历史过程的影响分析,获得影响洞头沿海赤潮发生的大气环流特征：500hPa高度场上受副热带高压影响,850hPa流场维持西南暖湿气流,地面维持长时间弱的偏东或偏南风。另外,在春夏交替季节,洞头沿海处在西风带和东风带的交界处,大气环流整体上处于保持稳定或少动的状态,这也为赤潮的持续性爆发提供了有利的大气环境。大气环流的调整改变对赤潮的发生发展具有重要影响,当大气环流发生剧烈变化或受某个大尺度系统影响时,赤潮的维持状态将发生改变,且不同季节发生的赤潮,主导影响的气象要素也不同,降水和风力对赤潮过程的“预警”作用值得关注。通过回归分析发现,平均气压、气温和相对湿度与赤潮藻类浓度呈正相关,而降水量、日照时数、风速等与赤潮藻类浓度为负相关,平均风速与赤潮藻类浓度的相关系数绝对值最大,其次是日照时数,第三是日降水量,所有的相关系数均通过95%信度的显著性检验。同时利用多元回归分析,得到一个以藻类浓度为因变量,其他气象要素为自变量的多元线性回归方程,并进行预报效果检验,得到的预报值与实况值总体上比较接近,符合监测要求,具有一定的参考价值。最后,建立一种适合洞头沿海赤潮的气象学预报模型和气象服务方案。
[Abstract]:Red tide is a complex and serious impact on the marine environment disasters. Meteorological factors is an important condition for inducing red tide. Causes of red tide forecast and control the red tide disaster has been the focus and difficulty of research work, this paper firstly analyzes and studies the case of red tide and meteorological data of 2007-2012 years of Dongtou coast, the Dongtou unique geographical location, island, coastal chemical and aquaculture industry and climate conditions in coastal areas of Dongtou province is a high incidence area of red tide and red tide occurred mainly in the 5-9 month time, the vast majority in every 5-6 months, but in recent years, Dongtou coastal red tide occurrence and development duration showed a steady increase trend. Through time and space the distribution of red tide in the coastal Dongtou, analyzed the influence of meteorological factors, the variation characteristics of meteorological elements in Dongtou coastal red tide outbreak, large The gas circulation changes and main weather system, which has guiding significance for future use of meteorological condition forecast of red tide. Secondly, the influence on the three red tide case history analysis, influence of atmospheric circulation characteristics of Dongtou coastal red tide: 500hPa height field affected by the subtropical high, the 850hPa flow to maintain the Southwest warm air, ground maintain a long time weak easterly or southerly winds. In addition, in the spring and summer season, the Dongtou coast in the westerly and easterly junction, atmospheric circulation on the whole in a state of stable or less, which also provides a favorable environment for atmospheric persistent red tide outbreak. Has an important influence on the atmospheric circulation change on the occurrence and development of red tide, when the atmospheric circulation changes or affected by a large scale system, maintain the state of red tide will be changed, and in different seasons Red tide festival takes place, the dominant effect of different meteorological factors, precipitation and wind to the red tide of "early warning" effect is remarkable. The regression analysis shows that the average air pressure, air temperature and relative humidity were positively related with algae concentration, while the precipitation, sunshine duration, wind speed and algae concentration are negatively correlated. The correlation coefficient of average wind speed and the maximum absolute value of algae concentration, followed by third hours of sunshine, precipitation and the correlation coefficients all through 95% significance test reliability. At the same time using multiple regression analysis to a dependent variable with algae concentration and other meteorological factors as variables in multiple linear regression equation and forecast effect test, the forecast value and the actual value is closer to the overall, meet the monitoring requirements, has a certain reference value. Finally, the establishment of a suitable for Dongtou coastal red tide The meteorology forecast model and the meteorological service plan.

【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X55;X16

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