福建沿海年平均海平面年际变化特征、预测及风险评估

发布时间：2018-01-16 22:05

本文关键词：福建沿海年平均海平面年际变化特征、预测及风险评估　出处：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1）本文利用福建沿海4个验潮站实测潮位资料，在分析实测资料变化趋势的基础上，采用谱分析的方法分析年平均海平面的变化趋势，得到了四个站年平均海平面变化模型，并对未来50年福建沿海的海平面上升趋势进行预测。近几十年来福建沿海海平面呈上升趋势，平均上升速度为0.17cm/a，非线性变化中主要低频振动周期为8～17a，主要高频振动周期为2a。预计2006～2056年的上升平均速率为0.17cm/a，2056年福建沿海各站海平面相对于2005年海平面平均增加12cm，厦门上升16.9cm，东山站预计上升最小为6.4cm。福建沿海未来50年平均上升速率与实测的速率变化不大，年平均海平面没有明显加速上升的趋势。根据福建海平面变化影响特点，建议采取以下措施应对：（1）针对福建沿海地质特点，加强地面沉降监测，控制建筑物高度，有效减小地面沉降幅度，减少海平面上升影响范围，保证沿海社会经济可持续发展。（2）9～11月为福建沿海台风风暴潮高发期，也是福建沿海季节性高海平面期，天文大潮期，易发生风暴增水、季节性高海平面和天文大潮三者叠加的情况，形成灾害性高潮位，相关部门应特别关注。（3）海平面上升的累积效应加大海水入侵与土壤盐渍化的距离和面积，福建应充分利用降水相对充沛的优势，合理调配水资源，，遏制海水入侵与土壤盐渍化的扩大趋势。（4）落实《海洋灾害风险排查和区划工作方案》要求，科学评估福建沿海地区海平面上升的潜在风险，对福建沿海地区进行风险区划，为沿海地区发展规划、海洋防灾减灾、工程设计及选址等提供科学依据。本文通过历史风暴潮、高潮位等海洋基本环境信息和灾害情况调查分析，掌握厦门沿海风暴潮等海洋灾害的基本规律特征，结合厦门社会综合因素、地理高程信息等资料，确定海洋灾害风险区和社会、经济、人口等重点保护区域（目标），开展厦门沿海的海平面上升风险调查评估。
[Abstract]:1) based on the measured tidal level data of four tidal stations in Fujian coastal area, the variation trend of the annual mean sea level is analyzed by spectral analysis method on the basis of analyzing the variation trend of measured data. The annual mean sea level change model of four stations is obtained, and the rising trend of sea level in Fujian coastal area in the next 50 years is predicted. In recent decades, the sea level in Fujian coastal area is on the rise trend. The average rising velocity is 0.17 cm / a, and the main low-frequency vibration period in nonlinear variation is 817 years. The main high frequency vibration period is 2 a. The average rate of increase from 2006 to 2056 is estimated to be 0.17 cm / a. In 2056, the mean sea level of Fujian coastal stations increased by 12 cm compared with 2005, and that in Xiamen increased 16. 9 cm. Dongshan station is expected to increase at the minimum of 6.4 cm. The average rising rate of Fujian coastal area in the next 50 years has little change with the measured rate. According to the influence characteristics of sea level change in Fujian, the following measures should be taken to deal with the geological characteristics of Fujian coastal area and strengthen the monitoring of land subsidence. Controlling the height of buildings, effectively reducing the extent of land subsidence, reducing the influence of sea level rise, and ensuring the sustainable development of coastal society and economy from 9 to November is the period of high typhoon storm surge in Fujian coastal area. It is also the situation of seasonal high sea level period, astronomical spring tide period, storm increasing water, seasonal high sea level and astronomical spring tide superposing, forming disaster climax. Relevant departments should pay special attention to the cumulative effect of sea level rise to increase the distance and area between seawater intrusion and soil salinization. Fujian should make full use of the relative abundant advantages of precipitation to rationally allocate water resources. To control the trend of sea intrusion and soil salinization. 4) to carry out the work plan of Marine disaster risk investigation and regionalization, and to scientifically assess the potential risk of sea level rise in coastal areas of Fujian Province. In order to provide scientific basis for coastal area development planning, marine disaster prevention and mitigation, engineering design and site selection, this paper adopts historical storm surge. To investigate and analyze the basic environmental information and disaster situation of the sea, such as high tide level, to grasp the basic characteristics of the sea disasters such as storm surge along the Xiamen coast, and to combine the comprehensive factors of Xiamen society and the information of geographical elevation, and so on. Determine marine disaster risk areas, social, economic, population and other key areas of protection (target, carry out coastal sea level rise risk assessment of Xiamen.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P731.23

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