越南沿海海平面特征及其变化趋势的研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 02:33

本文关键词： 卫星测高验潮站数据海平面变化余水位极值水位越南沿海　出处：《武汉大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海洋对自然界以及人类的生活具有重大的意义,它起到很重要的作用,比如提供潮水能、热能、海浪能等,海洋尤其是大陆架地层中蕴藏着丰富的资源,诸如金属、石油等,是发展工业所需重要资源。海洋渔业和养殖业、水产品出口加工业以及造船业、海洋开发机械业的发展也与海洋紧紧地联系在一起。然而,人类从海洋获得利益的同时也要面临很多来自海洋的挑战,比如海平面异常上升、台风、风暴潮、盐碱化加剧、海岸侵蚀导致沿海地区地貌不稳定等现象。这些源自海洋的自然灾害对沿海居民的生命财产安全以及沿海基础设施造成严重威胁和损害,在现今全球气候变化的背景下,情况更加严重。因此对海洋进行研究,掌握海洋变化规律从而有效控制并充分开发海洋,是现今全球关注的重要问题。通过海洋研究所取得的成果,我们将有可能基于自然规律,及时提出各种海洋灾害的预警预报,支持和保障海洋开发和海洋经济的可持续发展。验潮站观测记录是研究海平面变化最基础的数据,它具有长期性和稳定性的特点,但由于验潮站位于岛屿或大陆沿岸地区,导致验潮站观测值收到验潮站所处板块垂直运动影响。卫星测高作为一项空间测量技术,它以卫星为载体,借助于空间、电子和微波等高技术来量测全球海面高。为了确定南海海域和越南沿海水位波动特征及其变化趋势,本文已经使用了大量的越南沿海验潮站数据记录和16年卫星测高数据进行研究,研究工作和研究成果具体包括：1、主要工作利用验潮站数据研究越南沿海海区海平面,海潮,余水位(无潮水位)变化特征和趋势,以及极值水位统计预测。用于研究的验潮站做多共33个,分布在从北至南6个有代表性岸区,少数在近岸岛上,数据时间跨度在20-48年之间(1961--2009),采样率大多数为1h。论文第六章利用1993～2008年T/P和Jason-1数据简略计算了全球和南中国海的海平面变化。2、主要成果(1)利用沿海从北至南6个代表性海区10个长期观测验潮站数据,研究了各海区海平面变化特征和趋势。得到平均上升率为1.9mm/a。6个海区(北北,北中,中中,南中,东南,西南)除北宗区平均下降-3.2mm/a外均呈上升趋势(1961～2010),1990～2010年平均上升率为2.4mm/a。多年平均海面最高和最低之差为20～50cm。(2)利用沿海6个海区的代表验潮站数据,研究了沿海海潮特征及其变化趋势。6个海区潮差(高潮位与低潮位之差)总体平均上升2.4mm/a,其中只有北中部平均下降-2.2mm/a；经过利用越南沿海代表验潮站的长期观测时间的逐小时观测记录,进行潮汐调和分析获得了每年的潮汐调和常数,然后根据分潮调和常数时间序列,采用线性回归模型分析各主要分潮调和常数的变化趋势；根据关于主要全日潮和半日潮V指数的潮汐性质分类准则,包括正规和不正规全日潮,正规和不正规半日潮共四类,给出了6个海区潮汐类型的不同分布及振幅的量级和18年周期变化率,并结合ENSO(厄尔尼诺南方涛动)现象对结果作了解释。研究越南沿海潮汐结构及变是论文重点内容。(3)基于三种概率分布(Pearson-Ⅲ, Gumbel和Weibull),利用沿海6海区10个验潮站最长50年观测资料,研究计算了各海区极值水位及其预测。使用作者本人研制的潮汐分析软件包,对各参考观测资料求解了114个分潮调和常数,据此推算了不同时间间隔天文潮位时间序列,推估了不同重现期(10年-500年)多年一遇最高水位,比较了三种计算结果,差值均小于5cm,建议取三种结果平均值为最优,并讨论了多年一遇最高水位值用于工程设计的安全和经济性问题。(4)作了6个海区代表验潮站余水位(增减水位)变化的统计分析,得出多数站月平均余水位时间序列呈上升趋势,且与月平均海平面长期性变化趋势基本一致,分别统计了各站年平均余水位上升和下降交错出现的次数和对应持续时间,给出了增水位和减水位不同持续时间的累计频率,得出小于1天的频率均90%,大于2天的1%(台风发生期),同时得出增水位50cm的累积频率平均96%,减水位-50cm累积频率平均97%.(5)利用1993～2008(16年)T/P和Jason-1测高数据,分析了全球和南海海平面变化趋势,得出总体呈上升趋势,各年上升速度有差异,南海不同海区海平面变化表现出较大波动,平均速度为2.72±0.01mm/a,略高于全球平均上升速率2.14±0.06mm/a。
[Abstract]:The sea is of great significance to nature and human life, it plays a very important role, such as providing the energy, wave energy, ocean thermal energy, especially the continental shelf strata are rich in resources, such as metals, such as oil, is required for industrial development of important resources. Marine Fisheries and aquaculture water. Export processing industry and shipbuilding industry, the development of marine industry and marine machinery are closely linked. However, people benefit from the ocean but also face many challenges from the ocean, such as sea level anomaly on the rise, typhoon, storm surge, salinization intensified, coastal erosion, coastal areas lead to unstable landforms the phenomenon of these natural disasters. From the sea to coastal residents life and property safety and coastal infrastructure poses a serious threat and damage, in the background of global climate change, more And serious. So the research on the ocean, the ocean to grasp the change rule in order to effectively control and fully develop the ocean, is an important problem in current global concern. Through marine research achievements, we will be based on the laws of nature, warning timely put forward a variety of marine disasters, sustainable development support and protection of marine development and economy the tide gauge records are the most basic research data of sea level changes, it is long-term and stable, but the tide station is located on the island or the mainland coastal areas, resulting in tidal tidal stations where the values received plate vertical movement observation station. Satellite altimetry is a new spatial measurement technology. It is carried by satellite, with the help of space, electronic and microwave technology to measure the global sea level. In order to determine the South China Sea and Vietnam coastal water level fluctuation characteristics and its change This trend has been used in a large number of Vietnamese coastal tide research station data record and 16 years of satellite altimetry data, research work and research results including: 1. The main work of the tidal sea level, coastal sea data on Vietnam sea tide, residual water level (non tidal water level variation characteristics and trend prediction), and extreme water level statistics. For the study of the tidal stations do a total of 33, distributed from north to south in 6 representative coastal areas, few in the coastal island, the time span of data in 20-48 years (1961--2009), the sampling rate for the majority of 1h. in the sixth chapter, using 1993~2008 T/P Jason-1 data and brief sea level the change of.2 global and South Chinese sea were calculated, the main results (1) the coast from north to South and 6 representative in 10 long-term observations of tide gauge data, studies the character of sea-level changes in each area and get an average increase trend. The rate of 1.9mm/a.6 (North Sea, the north, in the south, Southeast, southwest, North District) in cases with an average decrease of -3.2mm/a were increased (1961~2010), the 1990~2010 year average increase rate of 2.4mm/a. for the highest and lowest mean sea level difference is 20 ~ 50cm. (2) by representatives of 6 coastal waters the tide gauge data, study the coastal tide characteristics and trend of.6 in tidal range (high tide and low tide difference) overall rise by an average of 2.4mm/a, which is just north of the central average decrease of -2.2mm/a; after a long time of observation by Vietnam coastal tide station on behalf of the hourly observation records of tidal harmonic analysis was obtained the annual tidal harmonic constant, then according to the time series of tidal harmonic constants, using linear regression model to analyze the change trend of the main tidal harmonic constants; according to the diurnal and semidiurnal tides on the main V index The tidal nature of the classification criteria, including regular and irregular diurnal tide, regular and irregular semidiurnal tide a total of four categories, given different distribution and amplitude of 6 types of tidal level and 18 years periodic change rate, and the combination of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon explained the results. On the coast of Vietnam tidal structure and change is the focus of this paper. (3) three based on probability distribution (Pearson- III, Gumbel and Weibull), the 6 coastal waters of 10 tide stations in the long 50 years of observation data, calculate the area and extreme water level forecasting. The developed by the author on the tidal analysis software package the reference data for 114 tidal harmonic constants, calculated the different time interval of astronomical tide time series to estimate the different return period (10 -500 years) the highest level in years, compared with three kinds of calculation results, the difference was less than 5 Cm, take three the average value is optimal, and discussed the highest level for many years a value for the engineering design of security and economic issues. (4) as the 6 representative sea tide station (or water) residual water level variation analysis of statistics, most of that station monthly average residual water level time series is rising the trend, and it is consistent with the monthly mean sea level long-term trends, respectively, statistics the station average residual water level rise and fall times of staggered and the corresponding duration, the cumulative frequency is given by the water level and the water level reduction of different duration, the frequency of less than 1 days were 90%, more than 2 days 1% (typhoon period), at the same time that the cumulative frequency of an average of 96% level 50cm, level -50cm reduced cumulative frequency average 97%. (5) by 1993~2008 (16) T/P and Jason-1 altimeter data, and analyzes the global sea level change trend, the overall There is an upward trend. The speed of annual rise is different. The sea level changes in different areas of the South China Sea show great fluctuations. The average speed is 2.72 + 0.01mm/a, slightly higher than the global average rate of increase of 2.14 0.06mm/a..

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P731.23

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