近千年气候格局的环流背景:ENSO态的不确定性分析与再重建

发布时间：2018-03-11 01:16

本文选题：近千年　切入点：ENSO　出处：《中国科学:地球科学》2016年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：全球增温在最近10余年是否停滞这个问题,引起了包括IPCC的广大气候研究科学共同体的关注.一些作者将停滞归因于气候系统内部变动即海气环流的重组,由此对近千年气候变化的环流背景重建提出了更高要求.然而,综观对近千年海洋-大气环流变化的分析及其与区域气候格局关系的结论,各家众说纷纭,以致矛盾重重,给区域乃至全球气候变化认识带来很大的不确定性.另一方面,近10年来高精度U-Th定年的石笋氧同位素比值(δ~(18)O)序列为中晚更新世古气候研究提供了较为精确的年代框架,其间中国作者无一例外将中国石笋δ~(18)O作夏季风指标解释,这种解释反映在气候学家的应用和模型中就成了降水要素.但事实是,所有这些记录在低频趋势变化上具有很大的共同性,而多数序列不能被器测降水记录所校准,这样就更增加了中国区域乃至全球气候研究架构的不确定性.因此,尽早厘清矛盾的由来,并降低研究中的不确定性,是当今气候科学必须做的一件事情.本文在分析证明中国季风区石笋δ~(18)O意义的基础上,尝试提出一个新的环流代用指标:集成中国石笋δ~(18)O序列重建近千年热带太平洋纬向海温梯度即大尺度ENSO态,进而推测现代与中世纪虽然同为暖期,却出现了不同的环流重组,这个推论可以得到更长的末次盛冰期以来记录的支持.换言之,中国石笋δ~(18)O低频趋势大区域一致的归因分析表明,ENSO态从不同时间尺度(从年际到百年以至更长尺度)控制了中国季风区气候变化,而其中重要的环流桥梁是西太副高,即西太副高本身除了年际、年代际变化以外,还具有更长时间尺度的环流模态.比如,我们可以讨论西太副高在整个全新世即半个岁差的变化.这些讨论也许不仅仅对于古气候,而且对于现代气候研究也不无意义.
[Abstract]:Global warming in the last 10 years is stagnant this problem, including the cause of the IPCC of the majority of the scientific community on climate research. Some authors will stagnate due to the internal climate system that changes in ocean atmosphere circulation restructuring, put forward higher requirements on the climate changes during the last millennium circulation background reconstruction. However, the analysis of the past the Millennium ocean atmospheric circulation changes and the conclusions, and the relationship between the regional climate pattern that is full of contradictions, Public opinions are divergent., brought great uncertainty to the regional and global climate change. On the other hand, stalagmite oxygen isotope ratios in recent 10 years, high precision of U-Th dating (8 ~ (18) O sequence) provides a more accurate chronological framework for late Pleistocene paleoclimate studies, which the author China without exception will Chinese 8 ~ (18) O stalagmite explain summer monsoon index, this interpretation is reflected in the climate scientists The application and model in the precipitation factors. But the fact is that all of these records have great changes on the common trend in low frequency, while most sequences cannot be measured by the rainfall records of calibration, thus increased the uncertainty of Chinese regional and global climate research framework. Therefore, as soon as possible to clarify the origin of contradiction in the study, and reduce uncertainty, is a thing of today's climate science must be done in this article. The analysis shows that China monsoon stalagmite Delta (18) ~ O based on the significance, try to put forward a new index circulation: Integrated Chinese alternative stalagmite ~ (18) O delta reconstruction sequence of nearly a thousand years the tropical Pacific SST zonal gradient of large scale ENSO state, and that although the same as the modern and medieval warm period, there are different circulation recombination, this corollary can get longer since the last glacial maximum record support. In other words, Chinese A ~ (18) O Delta regional low-frequency trend consistent attribution analysis showed that the ENSO state from different time scales (from interannual to 100 years and even longer scale) control Chinese monsoon climate change, which is an important bridge of circulation of WPSH, namely SHWP itself apart from the interannual, interdecadal changes outside also, circulation mode has a longer time scale. For example, we can discuss the SHWP throughout the Holocene is the change in half. These may not discuss precession for the ancient climate, but also has the significance for modern climate research.

【作者单位】：中国科学院新生代地质与环境重点实验室中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所;
【基金】：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(编号:XDA05080501) 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(编号:2010CB950101) 国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:41030103) 国家科技基础性工作专项项目(编号:2011FY120300)资助
【分类号】：P434;P732

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