设定琉球海沟发生罕遇地震评估我国东南沿海地区的海啸风险

发布时间：2018-04-05 17:15

本文选题：琉球海沟　切入点：罕遇地震　出处：《地震工程学报》2016年02期

【摘要】：根据构造相似条件分析,琉球海沟与日本海沟、智利海沟、印尼巽他海沟一样具备发生9级罕遇超巨大地震的可能。在对近几年来全球发生的超巨大地震参数及构造对比分析的基础上,设定琉球海沟9.0级地震参数,并将其引发的海啸进行数值模拟研究。结果表明,该地震可引发初始波高为8m的海啸,台湾东北部半小时后遭受10m以上海啸,3~4小时左右传至浙南、闽北沿岸,近岸各处波高在1~2m;5小时左右传至浙北、粤北沿岸,浙江近岸各处波高在2m左右,广东沿海、台湾海峡由于台湾岛的正面阻挡,海啸波高低于50cm;8小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波高约1m。海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关,我国东南海域地形变化复杂、海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,模拟结果可能比实际海啸偏小。我国沿海地区分布着不少已建和在建的核电厂,在核电设计时未考虑海啸,一旦发生这种罕遇地震海啸则影响不可忽视,尤其是若与风暴潮、天文大潮叠加则可能出现严重后果。由于核电安全要求万无一失,故须制订有效预警和应对措施。
[Abstract]:According to structural similarity analysis, the Ryukyu trench is as likely as the Japanese trench, the Chilean trench and the Sunda Trench of Indonesia to have a magnitude 9 earthquake.Based on the comparative analysis of the parameters and structures of the super-large earthquakes in the world in recent years, the earthquake parameters of magnitude 9.0 in the Ryukyu trench are set up, and the tsunami caused by them is numerically simulated.The wave height in the coastal area of Zhejiang Province is about 2m. The tsunami wave height of the Taiwan Strait is less than 50 cm ~ (-1) after 8 hours, and the maximum wave height is about 1 m in the coastal area of Guangdong province.The landing height of the tsunami is closely related to the sea depth near the coast and the shape of the coastline. The topography of southeast China is complicated and there are many bays, which can amplify the tsunami wave. The simulation results may be smaller than that of the actual tsunami.There are many nuclear power plants that have been built up and under construction in the coastal areas of our country. The tsunami is not taken into account in the design of nuclear power. Once this rare earthquake and tsunami occurs, the impact can not be ignored, especially if it is associated with storm surge.The superposition of astronomical tides may have serious consequences.As nuclear power safety requirements are foolproof, it is necessary to formulate effective early warning and response measures.
【作者单位】：同济大学海洋与地球科学学院;上海市地震局;中国地震台网中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41372222) 上海市科委科研计划项目(14231202600)
【分类号】：P731.25;P738.4

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