海啸波高重现值的统计推算

发布时间：2018-06-01 01:28

本文选题：地震海啸 + 最大波高　；参考：《自然灾害学报》2016年04期

【摘要】：地震海啸是一种破坏性极其严重但发生次数较少的地震次生海洋灾害。如何确定地震海啸波高重现值,对于海岸地区海啸的防灾减灾规划与工程设计具有重要意义。以美国Crescent海岸地区实测海啸过程中出现的最大波高序列为例,首先采用5种极值分布(Gumbel、Weibull、Pearson III型、对数正态和广义极值分布)对海啸波高进行拟合,选取拟合较好的分布型式;然后考虑海啸发生过程的泊松分布,采用4种泊松复合分布(Poisson-Weibull、Poisson-Pearson III型、Poisson-对数正态和Poisson-广义极值分布)计算了地震海啸波高重现值,实现了对海啸波高的长期统计分析。计算结果表明:考虑地震海啸发生次数的泊松分布,采用泊松复合极值分布,可以很好地估计海啸最大波高的重现值。
[Abstract]:Seismic tsunami is an extremely destructive and less frequent Earthquake secondary ocean disaster. How to determine the present value of the seismic wave and wave height is of great significance to the planning and engineering design of the tsunami prevention and reduction in coastal areas. The largest wave height sequence in the tsunami process in the Crescent coastal area of the United States is the first example. 5 kinds of extreme value distributions (Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson III, lognormal and generalized extreme value distribution) are used to fit the wave height of the tsunami and select the better fitting pattern. Then, considering the Poisson distribution in the tsunami process, the 4 Poisson distribution (Poisson-Weibull, Poisson-Pearson III type, Poisson- lognormal and Poisson-) are adopted. The generalized extreme value distribution is used to calculate the high present value of the seismic tsunami wave height, and the long-term statistical analysis of the tsunami wave height is realized. The results show that the Poisson's distribution of Poisson's composite extremum is used to estimate the heavy present value of the maximum wave height of the tsunami.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51279186,51479183)~~
【分类号】：P731.25

【相似文献】