CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

发布时间：2018-06-07 04:00

  本文选题：中国近海海温 + CMIP　； 参考：《海洋学报》2016年10期

【摘要】：基于观测和再分析资料,利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征,但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海,集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上,与观测数据对比,模式模拟海温与Nino3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势,从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明,ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下,未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势,最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃,净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。
[Abstract]:Based on the observational and reanalysis data, the ability of 21 of the 21 models to simulate the monthly, seasonal and interannual variation of SST in China's coastal waters was evaluated by using various indicators and methods. Multi-model sets can reproduce the spatial distribution characteristics of offshore SST in the mean climate sense, but the values are underestimated to some extent. In Bohai Sea and Huang Hai, the difference between collective average and observation is obvious. On an interannual scale, compared with observational data, the model simulated SST has little correlation with Nino3 exponent. From 1960 to 2002, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China increased obviously, and began to slow down in 2003. The evaluation results show that the eight models of ACCESS 1.0 BCC-CSM 1.1 and HadGEM2-ESU IPSL-CM5A-MRN CMCC-CMN FGOALS-g2 CNRM-CM5-2INMCM4 can simulate the variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in China. Based on the results of five models of ACCESS 1.0 INMCM4 BCC-CSM1.1 IPSL-CM5A-MRCMCC-CM, the future variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in offshore China is predicted. Under the RCP4.5 / RCP8.5 scenario, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the next 100 years has an obvious upward trend. The average temperature increase of the optimal multi-model set can reach 1.5 鈩，

本文编号：1989665