多模型建构引导下的填海造地规模管控研究

发布时间：2018-07-06 14:38

本文选题：填海造地 + 规模确定　；参考：《天津大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：针对我国填海造地快速发展过程中，其规模控制缺乏科学制定依据和有效、可量化的管控标准的现实需要，本文从填海造地规模研究的方法范式构建开始，借鉴了相近学科的研究思路，制定了填海造地需求评价、供给评定和总量综合平衡的总体研究路线。在此基础上，本文首先运用了数理统计方法对国外代表性填海造地区域进行了历史回顾性评价，总结了填海造地规模需求指标、效益指标与填海造地规模历史积累量间的变化规律。然后，，本文依托状态空间法对国内一般性填海造地区域进行了基于现实条件的最大供给能力评价，给出了填海造地供给规模计算的抽象数学公式和直观表达的三维评价模型。其后，本文又运用系统动力学法对需求与供给的分析进行综合平衡，在填海造地区域可持续发展的理念下，建立了全面、系统、客观、可量化、易操作的填海造地规模评定系统模型。并以天津市滨海新区填海造地的实例，运用上述模型，进行了未来动态发展预测的验证研究。此外，本文全面总结了填海造地规模的主要影响因素，梳理了相关评价指标体系；实证多方案比较了不同发展条件下的填海造地进程，并最终通过对填海造地规模确定规律的研判，提出了在填海造地区域选择、总量控制、比例控制三大方面的九点管控标准和规划政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the process of rapid development of land reclamation in China, the scale control lacks the scientific basis and the realistic need of effective and quantifiable control standard. This paper starts with the paradigm construction of the scale research of land reclamation. The general research route of land reclamation demand evaluation, supply evaluation and comprehensive balance of total amount has been established by referring to the research ideas of similar disciplines. On this basis, this paper firstly uses mathematical statistical method to evaluate the history of representative reclaimed land areas abroad, and summarizes the index of scale demand for reclaimed land. The law of change between benefit index and historical accumulation of reclamation scale. Then, based on the state space method, this paper evaluates the maximum supply capacity of the general reclamation area in China based on the practical conditions, and gives the abstract mathematical formula of the scale calculation of the reclamation land supply and the three-dimensional evaluation model of the intuitionistic expression. Then, this paper uses the system dynamics method to carry on the comprehensive balance to the demand and the supply analysis, under the concept of the sustainable development of the reclamation area, has established the comprehensive, systematic, objective, quantifiable. An easy-to-operate model of scale assessment system for land reclamation. With the example of reclamation in Tianjin Binhai New area, the prediction of future dynamic development is verified by using the above model. In addition, this paper summarizes the main influencing factors of reclamation scale, combs the relevant evaluation index system, and compares the process of reclamation under different development conditions. Finally, through the study and judgment of the law of determining the scale of land reclamation, the paper puts forward nine control standards and planning policy recommendations in the three aspects of land reclamation area selection, total control and proportion control.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P756.8;TU984.18

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