基于灰色模型的天津社会经济发展与海洋环境关联性研究

发布时间：2018-08-13 19:56

【摘要】：随着天津经济的迅速发展,海洋开发力度增大,给近岸海洋生态环境带来了较大压力。弄清区域经济发展与环境污染之间的关联,对于寻求环境和经济的协调、可持续发展具有重要作用。采用灰色关联度分析和耦合度分析方法,定量揭示了经济发展与海洋环境的关联程度,从时序角度分析了2006-2013年经济与环境耦合关系的演变规律,同时对2014-2018年天津经济和海洋环境耦合关系的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:1经济规模中,地区生产总值增长速度与环境关联度较大;海洋产业活动中,海水养殖产量同未达清洁海域面积、活性磷酸盐浓度和无机氮浓度关联度较大,原油产量显著关联于石油类浓度,而海洋化工产品产量则与化学需氧量呈现强相关;22006-2013年天津社会经济与海洋环境的耦合度整体呈先升高后下降的趋势,但耦合关系始终处在磨合阶段;32014-2016年天津社会经济与海洋环境的耦合度出现缓慢上升,而2016-2018年耦合关系变化较小甚至有出现下降的趋势,未来还必须继续加大海洋环境保护力度,促进环境与经济的协调发展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of Tianjin's economy and the increase of ocean exploitation, great pressure has been brought to the coastal marine eco-environment. It is very important to understand the relationship between regional economic development and environmental pollution for seeking the harmony between environment and economy and sustainable development. The relationship between economic development and marine environment is analyzed. The evolution law of the coupling relationship between economy and environment from 2006 to 2013 is analyzed from the perspective of time series. The change trend of the coupling relationship between economy and marine environment in Tianjin from 2014 to 2018 is also predicted. The results show that: 1. In marine industrial activities, seawater aquaculture production is highly correlated with less than clean sea area, active phosphate concentration and inorganic nitrogen concentration, crude oil production is significantly correlated with petroleum concentration, while marine chemical product production is strongly correlated with chemical oxygen demand; 22006-2013 Tianjin socio-economic and marine environment coupling degree as a whole The coupling degree between social economy and marine environment in Tianjin increased slowly from 32014 to 2016, but the coupling degree between social economy and marine environment changed little or even decreased from 2016 to 2018. In the future, we must continue to strengthen marine environmental protection and promote the coordination between environment and economy. Adjust the development.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学;国家海洋信息中心;国家海洋标准计量中心;
【基金】：中国海洋发展研究中心重大项目(AOCZDA201205-1)
【分类号】：P74;F127

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