代谢循环视角下环渤海地区海洋经济可持续发展研究

发布时间：2018-08-18 08:11

【摘要】：人地关系矛盾的愈加剧烈使得海洋成为人类在未来生存和发展主要的资源宝库。对于海洋的依赖以及开发,使得人类不得不深入研究海洋,随之而来的是催生出新的海洋及其相关产业,带动海洋经济乃至区域经济的快速发展。虽然海洋为人类的发展提供了巨大的利益,但是也导致了一些问题,比如海洋资源的过度消耗以及沿海地区海洋生态环境的破坏。考虑到全球拥有近一半的人口居住在沿海地区,我们迫切需要新的分析模型来指导我们如何应对这些问题,如何通过利用和保护海洋资源,让人类走上一条可持续发展的道路。本文首先对海洋经济可持续发展相关的研究文献进行整理,分析国内外相关领域最新的理论研究进展,并分别进行评述。基于对海洋经济可持续发展及其相关理论理解的基础上,通过引入量化模型来评价海洋经济的可持续发展水平。以代谢循环能力作为研究切入点,建立海洋经济可持续发展测度指标体系,构建包含发展度、协调度、代谢循环度的量化模型。其次,根据环渤海地区17个沿海城市2000~2011年的相关研究数据,构建海洋经济可持续发展评价指标体系,采用决策分析方法将主观性较强的AHP法和客观性较强的熵值法相结合确定综合权重,并根据上文构建的协调发展模型和代谢循环模型来测算环渤海地区17个城市海洋经济的发展度、协调度和代谢循环度,并最终算出海洋经济的可持续发展度。再次,运用核密度估计模型对环渤海地区海洋经济可持续发展水平进行时间差异分析,根据得到的3个时点的核密度曲线表明,从2005年开始环渤海地区海洋经济可持续发展状况开始呈现两极分化的态势,但是可持续发展能力在总体上保持着持续增强。运用均值标准差分类法将环渤海地区17个城市的海洋经济可持续发展水平分为4类。其中强可持续发展地区为:天津、大连、青岛;中等可持续发展地区为:威海、烟台、日照和秦皇岛;较弱可持续发展地区为:唐山、沧州、营口、丹东、盘锦、葫芦岛、锦州、东营和潍坊;弱可持续发展地区为:滨州。可以发现海洋经济可持续发展水平较弱和弱的城市主要集中于环渤海地区的西海岸或者西北海岸。最后,构建包含三个维度(发展度、协调度和代谢循环度)的坐标图,进行比较分析的研究,基于各城市坐标轴上的位置和特征,发现海洋经济可持续能力的主要影响因素在环渤海地区17个城市以及3个组群中存在差别。比较分析研究可以更加直观的找出影响各城市海洋经济可持续发展能力的主要因素,并有助于引导决策者为特定的地区制定一些特定的短期或者中长期的政策建议,对于增强区域可持续发展能力具有一定的现实意义。
[Abstract]:The increasingly intense contradiction between man and land makes the ocean become the main resource treasure for human survival and development in the future. The dependence and development of the ocean make the human beings have to study the ocean in depth. With it, the new ocean and its related industries are spawned, and the rapid development of the marine economy and even the regional economy is brought about. Although the ocean provides enormous benefits for the development of human beings, it also leads to some problems, such as the excessive consumption of marine resources and the destruction of marine ecological environment in coastal areas. Considering that nearly half of the world's population lives in coastal areas, we urgently need new analytical models to guide us in how to deal with these problems and how to put mankind on a path of sustainable development through the use and protection of marine resources. In this paper, firstly, the relevant literatures on the sustainable development of marine economy are reviewed, and the latest theoretical research progress in the related fields at home and abroad is analyzed and reviewed respectively. Based on the understanding of the sustainable development of marine economy and its related theories, a quantitative model is introduced to evaluate the level of sustainable development of marine economy. Taking metabolic circulation ability as the starting point, the paper establishes the index system of the sustainable development of marine economy, and constructs a quantitative model including the degree of development, the degree of coordination and the degree of metabolic cycle. Secondly, according to the relevant research data of 17 coastal cities in Bohai Rim region from 2000 to 2011, the evaluation index system of sustainable development of marine economy is constructed. The decision analysis method is used to determine the comprehensive weight by combining the subjective AHP method with the objective entropy method. According to the model of coordinated development and metabolic cycle established above, the development degree, coordination degree and metabolic cycle degree of marine economy in 17 cities around Bohai Sea are calculated, and finally the sustainable development degree of marine economy is calculated. Thirdly, using the nuclear density estimation model to analyze the time difference of the sustainable development level of marine economy around Bohai Sea, according to the obtained nuclear density curve at three time points, it is shown that, Since 2005, the sustainable development of marine economy in Bohai Rim area has appeared to be polarized, but the ability of sustainable development has been continuously strengthened. The sustainable development level of marine economy in 17 cities around Bohai Sea is classified into 4 categories by means of mean standard deviation classification. The strong sustainable development areas are Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao; the middle sustainable development areas are Weihai, Yantai, Rizhao and Qinhuangdao; the weaker sustainable development areas are Tangshan, Cangzhou, Yingkou, Dandong, Panjin, Huludao, Jinzhou, Dongying and Weifang; weak sustainable development area: Binzhou. It can be found that the weak and weak cities of the sustainable development of marine economy mainly concentrate on the west coast or northwest coast of the Bohai Rim region. Finally, a coordinate map with three dimensions (development degree, coordination degree and metabolic cycle degree) is constructed for comparative analysis, based on the location and characteristics of each city coordinate axis. It is found that the main influencing factors of marine economic sustainability are different in 17 cities and 3 groups around the Bohai Sea. Comparative analysis and research can more intuitively identify the main factors affecting the sustainable development of urban marine economy, and help to guide policy makers to formulate specific short- or medium- and long-term policy recommendations for specific areas. It is of practical significance to strengthen the ability of regional sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P74

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