基于ECHAM5模式的21世纪冬季北大西洋涛动与北半球风暴轴的特征分析
发布时间：2018-08-18 09:52
【摘要】：基于德国马普所大气模式ECHAM5的输出结果,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种情景下21世纪冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)与冬季北半球风暴轴的变化特征进行探究。结果显示,3种情景下,NAO指数(NAOI)均表现出9-14年的周期,冬季两大洋风暴轴强度均呈增长趋势,2大风暴轴位置震荡总呈东北(西南)向。辐射较强的情景,冬季北太平洋风暴轴的平均位置越偏向亚欧大陆,冬季北大西洋风暴轴的平均面积指数越大且平均位置越偏西。合成分析结果显示,3种情景下,从NAO强年、平均态依次到弱年,2大洋风暴轴的响应不尽相同:RCP2.6情景中,北太平洋风暴轴明显远离欧亚大陆,强度和面积指数递减,而北大西洋风暴轴面积指数却显著递增;RCP4.5情景中,北半球两大洋上风暴轴面积均逐渐增大,北大西洋风暴轴逐渐靠近美洲大陆,强度也加强;RCP8.5中,冬季北太平洋风暴轴面积指数增大,位置远离亚欧大陆,强度增强,北大西洋风暴轴强度显著递增。
[Abstract]:Based on the output results of ECHAM5, an atmospheric model in Maputo, Germany, the variation characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the winter storm track in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter of the 21st century are investigated under the three scenarios of RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that the (NAOI) index shows a period of 9-14 years under three scenarios, and the intensity of the two major oceanic storm tracks shows an increasing trend in winter. The location oscillations of the two major storm tracks tend to be in the northeast (southwest) direction. In the case of strong radiation, the average position of the North Pacific storm track is more inclined to the Eurasian continent in winter, and the average area index of the North Atlantic storm track is larger and the average position is more westward in winter. The results of synthetic analysis show that in the three scenarios, from the strong year of NAO, the average state is in order to the response of the oceanic storm track in the weak year, the response of the oceanic storm track is not the same as that of the second oceanic storm track. In this scenario, the northern Pacific storm track is obviously far from the Eurasian continent, and the intensity and area index decrease. However, the area index of the North Atlantic storm track increased significantly in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and the area of the storm track in the two major oceans in the Northern Hemisphere gradually increased, and the North Atlantic storm track gradually approached the American continent, and the intensity of the storm track increased in RCP 8.5. In winter, the area index of the North Pacific storm track increases, the position is far away from the Eurasian continent, and the intensity increases, and the intensity of the North Atlantic storm track increases significantly.
【作者单位】： 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划“海洋仪器”设备规范化海上试验(2016YFC1401300)资助
【分类号】：P434;P732
，
本文编号：2189107
[Abstract]:Based on the output results of ECHAM5, an atmospheric model in Maputo, Germany, the variation characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the winter storm track in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter of the 21st century are investigated under the three scenarios of RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that the (NAOI) index shows a period of 9-14 years under three scenarios, and the intensity of the two major oceanic storm tracks shows an increasing trend in winter. The location oscillations of the two major storm tracks tend to be in the northeast (southwest) direction. In the case of strong radiation, the average position of the North Pacific storm track is more inclined to the Eurasian continent in winter, and the average area index of the North Atlantic storm track is larger and the average position is more westward in winter. The results of synthetic analysis show that in the three scenarios, from the strong year of NAO, the average state is in order to the response of the oceanic storm track in the weak year, the response of the oceanic storm track is not the same as that of the second oceanic storm track. In this scenario, the northern Pacific storm track is obviously far from the Eurasian continent, and the intensity and area index decrease. However, the area index of the North Atlantic storm track increased significantly in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and the area of the storm track in the two major oceans in the Northern Hemisphere gradually increased, and the North Atlantic storm track gradually approached the American continent, and the intensity of the storm track increased in RCP 8.5. In winter, the area index of the North Pacific storm track increases, the position is far away from the Eurasian continent, and the intensity increases, and the intensity of the North Atlantic storm track increases significantly.
【作者单位】： 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划“海洋仪器”设备规范化海上试验(2016YFC1401300)资助
【分类号】：P434;P732
，
本文编号：2189107
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