基于灰色模型的广西海洋经济增加值预测研究

发布时间：2018-08-22 13:18

【摘要】：灰色预测模型具有对数据要求不高,却对中短期预测精度较高、效果较好的特点,其应用范围十分广泛.根据2010-2014年广西海洋经济相关数据,建立广西海洋经济增加值的灰色模型并进行检验,证明了模型可用,并对广西海洋经济增加值进行了预测.通过对比预测值与初始值数据,发现海洋科研教育管理服务业增加值与广西海洋生产增加值增长并不相匹配,增加值增加速度慢于广西海洋生产增加值,说明了广西在吸引海洋经济人才、资金、技术等时,对相应的海洋科研教育管理服务业的重视不够;同时,海洋矿业、海洋盐业、海洋船舶工业、海洋生物医药、海洋电力业、海水利用业比重占主要海洋产业增加值比重非常小,无论是绝对数量,还是相对比例,都与广西海洋经济快速发展态势不相匹配,最后给出了结论与建议.
[Abstract]:The grey prediction model has the characteristics of low demand for data, but high precision and good effect for medium and short term prediction, and its application is very extensive. According to the relevant data of Guangxi marine economy from 2010 to 2014, the grey model of Guangxi marine economic added value is established and tested, the model is proved to be available, and the value added of Guangxi marine economy is forecasted. By comparing the predicted value with the initial value data, it is found that the added value of the marine scientific research and education management service industry does not match the increase of the added value of marine production in Guangxi, and the increase rate of the added value is slower than that of the added value of the marine production in Guangxi. It shows that Guangxi has not paid enough attention to the corresponding marine scientific research, education and management service industry in attracting marine economic talents, capital and technology, and at the same time, the marine mining industry, marine salt industry, marine shipping industry, marine medicine, marine electric power industry, etc. The proportion of seawater utilization industry to the value added of the main marine industry is very small, both in absolute quantity and relative proportion, which are not matched with the rapid development of Guangxi marine economy. Finally, some conclusions and suggestions are given.
【作者单位】：钦州学院经济管理学院;
【基金】：2014年广西教育厅科研课题“广西海洋经济可持续发展研究”(YB2014406) 广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地北部湾海洋文化研究中心2015年度课题“生态文明视阈下广西海洋经济与海洋战略研究”(2015BMCD01) 2014年国家社科基金西部项目“中国-东盟海上互联互通机制研究”(14XGJ004)
【分类号】：P74;F127

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