基于动态极值理论和Copula函数的极端海平面高度预测建模
发布时间：2018-10-11 09:56
【摘要】：全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升是一个潜在的重大风险,为防范气候灾害,应对极端气象海洋事件,需客观、定量地对未来极端海平面变化进行科学预测。为此,基于Copula函数和动态极值分析理论,综合考虑平均海平面变化(包括垂直陆地运动和基准的局地变化)与潮、涌、浪等其他气候变化的增水对极端海平面高度的影响,采用DREAM方法改进Bayes推断对动态极值模型的参数空间估计问题,提出一种新的模型对未来极端海平面高度变化进行预测,旨在改进传统模型存在的不确定性问题,并运用该模型对气候变化背景下厦门地区未来35年的海平面变化情景进行了模型应用和实验模拟。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global climate change, sea level rise is a potential major risk. In order to prevent climate disasters and deal with extreme meteorological ocean events, scientific prediction of future extreme sea level change is necessary. Therefore, based on the Copula function and the theory of dynamic extreme value analysis, the effects of mean sea level change (including vertical land movement and local variation of datum) and other climatic changes, such as tide, surge, wave, on extreme sea level height, are considered synthetically. DREAM method is used to improve the parameter space estimation of dynamic extremum model by Bayes inference, and a new model is proposed to predict the future extreme sea level height change, which aims to improve the uncertainty of the traditional model. The model is used to simulate the sea level change in Xiamen area in the next 35 years under the background of climate change.
【作者单位】： 解放军理工大学气象海洋学院;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;河北省唐山市曹妃甸工业区气象局;
【基金】：气象水文预先研究项目(407010602) 唐山市曹妃甸工业区专项(CQZ-2014001)
【分类号】：P731.23
[Abstract]:Under the background of global climate change, sea level rise is a potential major risk. In order to prevent climate disasters and deal with extreme meteorological ocean events, scientific prediction of future extreme sea level change is necessary. Therefore, based on the Copula function and the theory of dynamic extreme value analysis, the effects of mean sea level change (including vertical land movement and local variation of datum) and other climatic changes, such as tide, surge, wave, on extreme sea level height, are considered synthetically. DREAM method is used to improve the parameter space estimation of dynamic extremum model by Bayes inference, and a new model is proposed to predict the future extreme sea level height change, which aims to improve the uncertainty of the traditional model. The model is used to simulate the sea level change in Xiamen area in the next 35 years under the background of climate change.
【作者单位】： 解放军理工大学气象海洋学院;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;河北省唐山市曹妃甸工业区气象局;
【基金】：气象水文预先研究项目(407010602) 唐山市曹妃甸工业区专项(CQZ-2014001)
【分类号】：P731.23
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 陈子q，
本文编号：2263771
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/haiyang/2263771.html
