基于灰色系统理论的钱塘江潮汐预报技术研究

发布时间：2018-11-03 21:51

【摘要】：钱塘江大潮闻名天下,然而汹涌的大潮对两岸人民的生命财产安全及沿江工程设施构成严重的威胁。准确地预测出钱塘江大潮的高潮位、到潮时间和年极值高潮位对钱塘江水资源优化管理和防潮减灾管理进行科学地决策具有十分重要的意义。由于钱塘江大潮受到水文、气象等随机不确定性因素的影响,导致其水文资料表现出一些随机性和非线性的特征,因而增加了钱塘江潮汐预报的难度。对于非线性系统研究,灰色系统理论具有一定的优势。论文首次基于灰色系统理论,根据钱塘江沿江水文站点的历史水文资料对钱塘江潮汐预报技术进行了研究,具体内容如下:1)根据盐官水文站历史高潮位时间序列建立了灰色GM(1,1)模型,在此模型基础上结合了马尔可夫链建立了高潮位灰色马尔可夫模型,分别对高潮位的预测结果表明灰色马尔可夫模型在高潮位预测中具有较高的精度。并将灰色马尔可夫模型应用在闸口水文站整个月内的高潮位预报中,取得了较好的结果。2)对于钱塘江涌潮的到潮时间预报,提出了涌潮检测和传播时延预测的分段预报方法。根据涌潮到达前后时刻水位和流速的变化特征来检测涌潮是否到达。进一步研究了直接根据涌潮传播时延历史数据建模预测和对原始数据采用弱化缓冲算子变换后再建模预测,预测结果表明采用弱化缓冲算子变换后建模能有效地排除系统受到的干扰,提高涌潮传播时延预测的精度。3)针对钱塘江年极值高潮位历史数据频繁波动的特点,根据灰色系统理论中的拓扑预测方法对年极值高潮位预测进行研究。根据澉浦水文站1951-2002年的年极值高潮位历史数据建立了灰色拓扑预测模型,预测了未来年份(2003-2021年)的极值高潮位变化,预测结果与已知年份(2003-2014年)的实测年极值高潮位接近或位于极值高潮位的预测区间。后续年份的极值高潮位预测值可以提前为防范潮灾等自然灾害作一定的参考。论文基于灰色系统理论的相关预测方法分别对钱塘江潮汐的高潮位、到潮时间和年极值高潮位预报做了研究,取得了较好的结果。该理论预报方法建模方便、预测精度较高,可以为提高钱塘江潮汐信息化预报系统的准确度和可靠性提供一定的理论基础。
[Abstract]:The Qiantang River is famous all over the world, but the surging tide poses a serious threat to the lives and property of the people on both sides of the strait and to the engineering facilities along the river. The high tide level of Qiantang River is predicted accurately. It is very important for the optimal management of water resources of Qiantang River and the management of dampproof and disaster reduction to make scientific decision on the time to tide and annual extreme high tide level. Due to the influence of hydrology, meteorology and other random uncertain factors, the hydrological data of Qiantang River show some characteristics of randomness and nonlinearity, which makes it more difficult to forecast the tide of Qiantang River. For the study of nonlinear systems, the grey system theory has some advantages. Based on the grey system theory and the historical hydrological data of the Qiantang River hydrological station, the tide forecasting technology of Qiantang River is studied for the first time in this paper. The main contents are as follows: 1) based on the historical high tide time series of Yanguan Hydrological Station, the grey GM (1K1) model is established, and on the basis of this model, the grey Markov model of high tide level is established by combining the Markov chain. The prediction results of high tide level show that the grey Markov model has a high accuracy in the prediction of high tide level. The grey Markov model is applied to the prediction of the high tide level in the whole month at the sluice gate hydrologic station. 2) for the forecast of tidal time of the Qiantang River bore tide, A piecewise prediction method for tidal bore detection and propagation time delay prediction is proposed. According to the characteristics of water level and velocity before and after the arrival of the tidal bore, the arrival of the tidal bore is detected. Furthermore, the modeling and prediction based on the historical data of tidal bore propagation and the transformation of weakening buffer operator for the original data are studied. The prediction results show that the modeling using the weakening buffer operator transform can effectively eliminate the interference of the system and improve the accuracy of the prediction of tidal bore propagation delay. 3) in view of the characteristics of frequent fluctuations in the historical data of annual extreme high tide level in Qiantang River, Based on the topological prediction method of grey system theory, the prediction of annual extreme high tide level is studied. Based on the historical data of annual extreme high tide level from 1951 to 2002, a grey topological prediction model is established to predict the variation of extreme high tide level in future years (2003-2021). The predicted results are close to or located in the prediction interval of the maximum annual high tide level in known years (2003-2014). The prediction value of extreme value and high tide level in the following years can be used as a reference for the prevention of natural disasters such as tidal disasters. Based on the grey system theory, this paper studies the prediction of high tide level, tide-to-tide time and annual extreme tide level of Qiantang River respectively, and obtains good results. The theoretical prediction method is convenient to model and has high prediction accuracy. It can provide a theoretical basis for improving the accuracy and reliability of the Qiantang River tidal information forecasting system.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P731.34

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