中国海洋经济增长与资源消耗的脱钩分析及回弹效应研究

发布时间：2018-12-16 01:44

【摘要】：基于海洋经济增长与资源消耗"脱钩"的内涵,利用改进的Tapio脱钩模型和GIS空间分析技术研究了中国海洋经济增长与资源消耗脱钩关系的时空格局演变规律,引入无残差完全分解模型对中国沿海11省份海洋经济增长中海洋资源消耗的回弹效应进行分解分析,结果表明:(1)1997-2006年中国海洋资源消耗量随海洋经济增长而不断增加,海洋经济增长对资源的依赖性较高;2006-2014年海洋资源消耗量增长趋势减缓,海洋经济增长正逐步实现与海洋资源消耗的脱钩。(2)1997-2014年广东、山东、浙江、江苏、天津、福建、辽宁、河北海洋经济增长与资源消耗之间以弱脱钩为主,上海海洋经济增长与资源消耗之间以强脱钩为主,海南、广西海洋经济增长与资源消耗之间以扩张负脱钩为主,到2014年脱钩显著的区域呈现空间集聚的态势。(3)规模效应、人口效应对海洋资源消耗具有正向作用,而强度效应对海洋资源消耗具有抑制作用,着力提高技术效率、适度控制人口规模、合理调控海洋经济发展规模是实现海洋经济增长与资源消耗"脱钩"的关键。
[Abstract]:Based on the connotation of "decoupling" between marine economic growth and resource consumption, an improved Tapio decoupling model and GIS spatial analysis technology are used to study the temporal and spatial pattern evolution of the relationship between marine economic growth and resource consumption decoupling in China. The springback effect of marine resource consumption in the growth of marine economy in 11 coastal provinces of China is analyzed by introducing the model of complete decomposition without residual error. The results are as follows: (1) the consumption of marine resources in China increased with the increase of marine economy from 1997 to 2006, and the growth of marine economy was highly dependent on resources; From 2006 to 2014, the increasing trend of marine resources consumption slowed down, and the growth of marine economy was gradually decoupling from the consumption of marine resources. (2) from 1997 to 2014, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Fujian, Liaoning, There is a weak decoupling between marine economic growth and resource consumption in Hebei Province, a strong decoupling between marine economic growth and resource consumption in Shanghai, and a negative decoupling between marine economic growth and resource consumption in Hainan and Guangxi. By 2014, the areas with significant decoupling show a situation of spatial agglomeration. (3) scale effect, population effect have positive effect on marine resource consumption, while intensity effect has restraining effect on marine resource consumption and exerting efforts to improve technical efficiency. The key to realize the "decoupling" between the growth of marine economy and the consumption of resources is to control the population scale appropriately and to regulate the development scale of marine economy reasonably.
【作者单位】：辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心;中共辽宁省委党校经济学教研部;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41671119) 教育部重大项目(16JJD790021)
【分类号】：F124;P74

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