海洋气象灾害区划及防灾设防标准研究

发布时间：2019-03-14 15:00

【摘要】：我国是世界上受台风影响最严重的国家之一。一直以来,浙江、福建、广东、海南等我国中南沿海省份都因台风灾害遭受了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,并且随着经济的发展,这种损失呈增长的趋势。有些省份的设防标准无法抵抗实际的台风灾害冲击,以至于造成了巨大的损失。之所以设防标准过低,原因主要有两方面。一方面是由于所使用的定级方法不正确,使得对以往灾害定级不准确；另一方面是对本地灾害没有从概率统计的角度进行分析,没有对影响该地区的多次台风资料进行统计分析,因此缺少对本地区灾害的区划,而这种区划可以为一个省或者一些重要城市的设防标准提供依据。有了正确的定级和区划,就可以以此为依据修正以往的错误或者建立正确的标准。因此如何客观评价台风灾害影响等级,给国家决策层面或者社会提供更有效更合理的灾害评估服务产品被日益提上日程。目前,对台风灾害的评估还处于描述性或者半定量的分析阶段,很少有严格的定量分析。并且灾害指标的多样性,也是台风灾害等级目前没有统一的综合标准的因素之一。台风灾害的大小不仅要考虑受灾人口、受灾面积、倒塌房屋和直接经济损失这四项社会指标,还应考虑风速和历时这两个主要的台风特征指标。只有综合考虑社会指标和台风特征指标,才能准确地对台风的灾害大小进行定级研究。本文从全面评价海洋气象灾害出发,为准确全面为灾害定级探究一种方法。综合考虑全面性、可比性、可操作性等方面,选定了灰色关联度的方法。在此基础上本文对该方法进行了改进,加入了正态分布和极值分布两种概率统计方法,创造出了改进的灰色关联度方法。使得该方法不仅可以为某几次台风灾害进行定级,而且可以为某一个省份的灾情大小进行定级。此方法的建立将帮助我们理解灾害、定级灾害以及为设防标准提供依据。台风造成的次生灾害,例如狂风、暴雨、泥石流和洪水等也同样需要引起我们的足够重视。在各种海洋自然灾害中,对我国影响最大、出现频次最高以及所造成经济损失最严重的是台风暴潮增水。本文根据已有年份的风暴潮资料,利用灰色马尔科夫链方法预测未知年份的风暴潮数据,多维复合极值分布方法求多年一遇的极端数据,并做了一个洪水淹没城市的模型,给国家和社会一个直观的台风引起的洪水淹没景象,给大家一个直观的认识。本文进一步利用GIS软件,将我国沿海各省份台风灾害等级展示出来。这样从国家宏观控制上,建立了一个各地区气象灾害等级区划系统,为国家防灾提供依据。
[Abstract]:China is one of the most serious countries affected by typhoon in the world. For a long time, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan and other coastal provinces in central and south China have suffered huge casualties and property losses due to typhoon disasters, and with the development of the economy, this kind of loss has shown an increasing trend. In some provinces, defense standards cannot resist the impact of the actual typhoon, resulting in huge losses. The reason why the defensive standard is too low, there are two main reasons. On the one hand, because of the incorrect classification method used in the past, the classification of previous disasters is not accurate; On the other hand, there is no statistical analysis of local disasters from the point of view of probability and statistics, and there is no statistical analysis of the data of many typhoons affecting the region, so there is a lack of regionalization of disasters in this area. This division can provide a basis for the defense standards of a province or some important cities. With the correct grading and regionalization, we can correct the previous mistakes or establish the correct criteria. Therefore, how to objectively evaluate the impact level of typhoon disasters and provide more effective and reasonable disaster assessment service products to the national decision-making level or society has been put on the agenda day by day. At present, the evaluation of typhoon disasters is still in the descriptive or semi-quantitative analysis stage, and there is little strict quantitative analysis. And the diversity of disaster index is also one of the factors that there is no unified comprehensive standard for typhoon disaster grade at present. The magnitude of typhoon disasters should not only consider the disaster population, disaster area, collapsed houses and direct economic losses, but also take into account the wind speed and duration of the two main characteristics of typhoon indicators. Only by considering the social index and typhoon characteristic index, can the classification study of typhoon disaster be carried out accurately. Starting from the comprehensive evaluation of marine meteorological disasters, this paper explores a method for accurate and all-round classification of marine meteorological disasters. Considering comprehensively, comparability and maneuverability, the method of grey correlation degree is selected. On this basis, the method is improved, and two probability and statistics methods, normal distribution and extreme value distribution, are added to create an improved grey correlation degree method. This method can be used not only to classify several typhoon disasters, but also to classify the magnitude of disasters in a certain province. The establishment of this method will help us to understand disasters, grade disasters and provide a basis for defensive standards. The secondary disasters caused by typhoons, such as strong winds, torrential rains, mudslides and floods, also need to be paid enough attention to. Among all kinds of marine natural disasters, typhoon surge has the greatest impact on China, the highest frequency of occurrence and the most serious economic loss. In this paper, according to the storm surge data of the existing years, the grey Markov chain method is used to predict the storm surge data of the unknown year, and the multi-dimensional compound extreme value distribution method is used to find the extreme data once a year, and a flood-flooded city model is made. Give the country and society an intuitive typhoon-induced flooding scene, give everyone an intuitive understanding. In this paper, GIS software is used to show typhoon disaster grade in coastal provinces of China. In this way, from the national macro-control, the establishment of a regional meteorological disaster classification system, to provide the basis for national disaster prevention.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P732;P429

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