ENSO与中国东部夏季降水异常关系的年代际变化

发布时间：2019-05-07 09:21

【摘要】：根据1960—2011年Had ISST资料集中的月平均海表温度资料和中国753站逐日降水资料,基于转经验正交函数分解等分析方法,发现中国夏季降水的变化具有明显的独立性特征,可以分为相对独立的11个雨区,并在此基础上讨论了11个雨区夏季降水与ENSO的相关关系及其年代际变化,发现不同雨区的夏季降水与ENSO相关关系的年代际变化特征不尽相同,据此可分为3种类型:第1类为稳定不相关型,代表区为东北地区、长江中下游地区、江南地区、闽赣地区、环琼州海峡地区;第2类为稳定相关型,代表区为河套地区、黄河中下游地区;第3类为相关关系变化型,代表区为辽吉地区、黄淮地区、淮河流域以及两广地区。而在第3类相关关系变化型中,4个雨区夏季降水与ENSO相关关系的年代际突变时间也存在差异,两广地区的突变年份在1975年左右,辽吉地区和黄淮地区的突变年份在1980年左右,淮河流域的突变年份在1985年左右。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly mean sea surface temperature data collected from Had ISST data from 1960 to 2011 and the daily precipitation data from 753 stations in China, it is found that the variation of summer precipitation in China has obvious independent characteristics based on the analysis methods of transforming empirical orthogonal function. It can be divided into 11 relatively independent rain areas. On the basis of this, the correlation between summer precipitation and ENSO and their Interdecadal variation in 11 rain areas are discussed. It is found that the Interdecadal variation characteristics of summer precipitation and ENSO correlation in different rain areas are different. According to this, it can be divided into three types: the first type is stable unrelated type, the representative area is northeast, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the south of the Yangtze River, the Fujian and Jiangxi regions, and the area around the Qiongzhou Strait; The second type is stable correlation type, the representative area is Hetao area, the middle and lower reaches area of the Yellow River, the third type is the variation type of correlation relationship, the representative area is Liaoji area, Huang-Huai area, Huaihe River basin and two-wide area. In the third type of correlation type, the interdecadal time of the correlation between summer precipitation and ENSO in four rain areas is also different. The year of abrupt change in the two areas is about 1975, and the year of mutation in Liaoji and Huang-Huai areas is about 1980. The abrupt change year of Huaihe River basin is about 1985.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;
【基金】：中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201535) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41305079)
【分类号】：P426.6;P732

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