中国海洋经济增长收敛性研究

发布时间：2019-05-30 02:13

【摘要】：进入21世纪，海洋战略逐渐受到了党和国家的重视，党的十八大报告把建设海洋强国上升到国家战略。近年来沿海地区也积极响应国家战略，纷纷提出了建设海洋强省强市的规划，加快海洋经济建设。然而由于沿海地区具有不同的自然资源禀赋、宏观经济基础、海洋科技水平、产业结构特征等要素，导致地区之间海洋经济发展差距日益显著，各地区的海洋经济发展呈现出明显的强弱分化的趋势，不利于全国海洋经济的可持续发展。目前学术界还未对如何缩小区域海洋经济差异性提出有效的方法，对此问题的研究具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文从收敛性的角度来理解区域海洋经济的差距变化，用系统的数量经济学方法，针对我国海洋经济增长的收敛性和动态演进等问题，进行了实证研究。本文的贡献主要集中在以下几个方面：首先，借鉴陆域经济收敛的理论基础和研究方法，首次提出“海洋经济增长收敛性”的概念，通过σ收敛、MLD指数、基尼系数三种指数分析方法，对我国海洋经济增长收敛性进行初步检验。实证结果发现，1996-2011年我国沿海地区海洋经济增长的收敛特征具有阶段性：1996-2011年整体收敛特征并不显著，1996-2001年不存在收敛性，2001-2006年收敛性无法确定，，2006-2011年存在有显著的收敛性，此期间区域海洋经济的差距不断缩小。其次，利用回归分析方法和面板数据模型，进一步验证得到2006-2011年我国海洋经济存在有显著的绝对收敛性和条件收敛性，海洋科技水平不仅对沿海地区海洋经济发展起到促进作用，也是导致条件收敛的重要影响因素。进一步引入地区虚拟变量，结果发现地区因素对海洋经济增长速度的影响并不显著。采用固定效应变系数的静态面板数据模型，实证结果发现我国海洋经济发展水平与收敛速度之间具有较为明显的负相关关系，落后地区的收敛速度更快，表现出不断追赶发达地区的趋势。采用动态面板数据模型，通过GMM估计方法测算出1996-2011年及2006-2011年海洋经济增长的收敛速度分别为1.72%、4.32%，相比截面回归分析方法和静态面板数据模型的回归结果更合理，更接近于现实。最后，采用非参数估计方法，仿真模拟我国沿海地区海洋经济增长的动态演进过程，更准确地验证了收敛特征的阶段性。通过选取不同的样本数据，对我国海洋经济总量水平、相对水平的分布进行非参数密度估计，运用R语言软件绘制出高斯核密度估计图，探讨1996-2011年我国沿海地区海洋经济增长的动态演进过程，并对未来的收敛趋势进行了预测。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, the marine strategy has been paid more and more attention by the party and the state, and the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has raised the building of a strong marine power to the national strategy. In recent years, coastal areas have also responded positively to the national strategy, and have put forward plans to build strong marine provinces and cities to speed up the construction of marine economy. However, due to the different natural resource endowment, macroeconomic foundation, marine science and technology level, industrial structure characteristics and other factors in coastal areas, the gap in marine economic development between regions is becoming more and more significant. The development of marine economy in various regions shows an obvious trend of strong and weak differentiation, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of marine economy in China. At present, the academic circles have not put forward effective methods on how to reduce the differences of regional marine economy, and the research on this problem is of great theoretical and practical significance. This paper understands the gap change of regional marine economy from the point of view of convergence, and makes an empirical study on the convergence and dynamic evolution of marine economic growth in China by using the systematic quantitative economics method. The contributions of this paper are mainly focused on the following aspects: first of all, referring to the theoretical basis and research methods of land economic convergence, the concept of "convergence of marine economic growth" is put forward for the first time, and the concept of "convergence of marine economic growth" is put forward for the first time. Three exponential analysis methods of Gini coefficient are used to test the convergence of marine economic growth in China. The empirical results show that the convergence characteristics of marine economic growth in coastal areas of China from 1996 to 2011 are phased: the overall convergence characteristics from 1996 to 2011 are not significant, there is no convergence in 1996 / 2001, and the convergence is uncertain from 2001 to 2006. There is significant convergence in 2006 / 2011, and the gap between regional marine economy is narrowing during this period. Secondly, by using regression analysis method and panel data model, it is further verified that there is significant absolute convergence and conditional convergence in China's marine economy from 2006 to 2011. The level of marine science and technology not only promotes the development of marine economy in coastal areas, but also plays an important role in influencing the convergence of conditions. Furthermore, the regional virtual variables are introduced, and the results show that the influence of regional factors on the growth rate of marine economy is not significant. Using the static panel data model with fixed effect variable coefficient, the empirical results show that there is an obvious negative correlation between the development level of marine economy and the convergence speed in China, and the convergence rate in backward areas is faster. It shows the trend of continuously catching up with the developed areas. Using the dynamic panel data model and GMM estimation method, the convergence rate of marine economic growth in 1996-2011 and 2006-2011 is 1.72% and 4.32%, respectively. Compared with the cross section regression analysis method and the static panel data model, the regression results are more reasonable and closer to reality. Finally, the nonparametric estimation method is used to simulate the dynamic evolution process of marine economic growth in coastal areas of China, and the stage of convergence characteristics is verified more accurately. By selecting different sample data, the nonparametric density estimation of the total level and relative level distribution of marine economy in China is carried out, and the kernel density estimation diagram of Gao Si is drawn by using R language software. This paper discusses the dynamic evolution process of marine economic growth in coastal areas of China from 1996 to 2011, and forecasts the convergence trend in the future.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P74

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