浙江近海热带气旋极值风速统计及重现期分析

发布时间：2019-06-01 15:55

【摘要】：极值风速重现期不仅是海岸工程设计的重要参考项,也是海洋预报部门发布预报、预警的重要依据。因此,本文通过统计分析1949-2015年之间经过浙江近海的热带气旋过程中的风速极值,采用P-III分布和Gumbel分布求矩适线法对其进行重现期的计算。由最小二乘法准则可知,P-III分布求矩适线法的拟合曲线优于Gumbel分布求矩适线法的拟合曲线,能够很好地拟合实测数据序列。比较P-III分布和Gumbel分布的计算结果可知,P-III分布计算结果更符合实测数据,且其计算的百年一遇极值风速设计值为92.26m/s。此外,文中还对计算方法进行了Matlab编程设计,以自适应的过程选取与数据序列拟合最好的曲线,不仅在计算方法上,而且在操作方式上,都较传统适线法更具有客观性和有效性。
[Abstract]:The recurrence period of extreme wind speed is not only an important reference item in coastal engineering design, but also an important basis for marine forecasting departments to issue forecasts and early warning. Therefore, based on the statistical analysis of the extreme value of wind speed in the process of tropical cyclones passing through the coastal waters of Zhejiang Province from 1949 to 2015, the recurrence period is calculated by using P-III distribution and Gumbel distribution moment fitting method. According to the least square method, the fitting curve of P-III distribution moment fitting method is better than that of Gumbel distribution moment fitting method, and it can fit the measured data sequence very well. Comparing the calculation results of P-III distribution and Gumbel distribution, it can be seen that the calculated results of P-III distribution are more in line with the measured data, and the designed value of extreme wind speed once in a hundred years is 92.26 m / s. In addition, the Matlab programming design of the calculation method is carried out, and the best curve fitting with the data sequence is selected by the adaptive process, not only in the calculation method, but also in the operation mode. Compared with the traditional line-fit method, they are more objective and effective.
【作者单位】：宁波大学理学院;宁波非线性海洋和大气灾害系统协同创新中心;国家海洋局东海信息中心;
【基金】：中国海洋工程咨询协会项目——沿海大型工程海洋灾害风险排查(宁波大榭岛石化集中区)(HS2015000171) 国家海洋局海洋减灾中心项目——漫滩溃决水流与近岸建筑物的相互作用规律研究(HX2016000010)
【分类号】：P732.3

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