基于过程模拟的HAZOP量化分析

发布时间：2018-02-14 09:23

本文关键词： HAZOP 稳态过程模拟模糊综合评价风险评价矩阵软件集成　出处：《青岛科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：危险与可操作性分析(Hazard and Operability Analysis,HAZOP)主要适用于分析、查找、预测化工过程中的设计缺陷、操作规程缺陷及其它可能存在的隐患,目前已广泛用于化工、石化、炼油、制药等行业。但随着这些行业规模的快速发展,传统的HAZOP定性分析已不能满足安全生产的需求。本文提出了一种将HAZOP与流程模拟技术进行结合的定量分析新方法,并采用了模糊综合评价法及风险分析矩阵相结合的风险评价分析方法。首先,本文通过调研国内外文献资料,综述了HAZOP分析方法的研究进展和工业应用,阐述了HAZOP定量分析的必要性。其次,本文在总结国内外专家对HAZOP量化分析的基础之上,对HAZOP定量分析方法做了改进,提出了HAZOP流程模拟定量分析新方法,该方法的“定量”主要从两个方面入手:一是对HAZOP分析偏差的量化,利用通用流程模拟软件AspenPlus对所分析的工艺过程进行模拟计算,获得不同程度的偏离对工艺系统过程的影响,进而实现对偏差进行量化;二是对HAZOP分析结果的量化,本文提出了一种对事故后果进行量化的模糊综合评价与风险评价矩阵相结合的方法,即由专家打分法确定事故发生概率和事故后果严重程度,经风险评价矩阵得到事故后果的风险等级。再次,在上述方法的基础上,本文利用软件集成技术开发了Aspen-Excel-HAZOP辅助分析软件,该软件利用VBA语言编制宏命令调用Aspen Plus提供的Excel接口程序Aspen Simulation Workbook,在AspenPlus和Excel之间进行数据传递,可在Excel表格中将“偏差”及模拟结果直观显示,并能自动形成HAZOP分析报告,从而显著提高了HAZOP分析的效率和质量。最后,本文以氯乙烯合成过程及甲苯、甲基环己烷共沸精馏过程等典型化工过程为例,采用上述方法进行HAZOP定量分析,对该方法的可行性和可靠性进行了验证。分析结果表明:本方法有效地克服了传统HAZOP定性分析的模糊性,提高了分析结果的针对性,能明确指出评价系统存在的薄弱环节和风险等级情况,找出系统中潜在的危险因素和可能导致的事故后果,从而为企业的安全生产管理提供可靠依据。
[Abstract]:Hazard and operability Analysis Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOPO) is mainly suitable for analysis, search and prediction of design defects, operational regulations and other possible hidden dangers in chemical processes. At present, Hazard and Operability Analysis has been widely used in chemical, petrochemical, oil refining, However, with the rapid development of these industries, the traditional qualitative analysis of HAZOP can no longer meet the requirements of production safety. A new quantitative analysis method combining HAZOP with process simulation technology is proposed in this paper. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the risk analysis matrix are used to analyze the risk. Firstly, this paper summarizes the research progress and industrial application of the HAZOP analysis method by investigating the domestic and foreign literature. The necessity of HAZOP quantitative analysis is expounded. Secondly, on the basis of summarizing domestic and foreign experts' quantitative analysis of HAZOP, this paper improves the method of HAZOP quantitative analysis, and puts forward a new method of HAZOP process simulation quantitative analysis. The "quantification" of this method mainly starts from two aspects: first, quantifying the deviation of HAZOP analysis, using the general process simulation software AspenPlus to simulate and calculate the process process analyzed, and obtaining the influence of different degrees of deviation on the process process of the process system. The second is the quantization of the results of HAZOP analysis. This paper puts forward a method of combining fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and risk evaluation matrix to quantify the accident consequences. That is, the probability of accidents and the severity of the consequences are determined by the expert scoring method, and the risk grade of the accident consequences is obtained by the risk evaluation matrix. Thirdly, on the basis of the above methods, In this paper, the Aspen-Excel-HAZOP assistant analysis software is developed by using the software integration technology. The software uses the VBA language to compile macro commands to call the Excel interface program Aspen Simulation Workbook provided by AspenPlus to transfer data between AspenPlus and Excel. The "deviation" and simulation results can be displayed directly in the Excel table, and the HAZOP analysis report can be formed automatically, so the efficiency and quality of HAZOP analysis can be improved significantly. Finally, the synthesis process of vinyl chloride and toluene are used in this paper. A typical chemical process, such as azeotropic distillation of methyl cyclohexane, was used for HAZOP quantitative analysis. The feasibility and reliability of the method are verified. The results show that this method can effectively overcome the fuzziness of traditional HAZOP qualitative analysis and improve the pertinence of the analysis results. It can clearly point out the weakness and risk grade of the evaluation system, find out the potential risk factors and the possible accident consequences in the system, and provide a reliable basis for the safety production management of the enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：青岛科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TQ086

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