基于Copula函数的现场暴露混凝土寿命预测方法

发布时间：2018-03-20 22:12

本文选题：混凝土　切入点：寿命预测　出处：《建筑材料学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对基础工程中混凝土结构在现场暴露环境下的寿命预测问题,提出了1种基于Copula函数的多退化因素剩余寿命预测方法.先选取质量损失和超声声速作为关键退化因素,针对其不同退化轨迹,对实际采集数据进行退化建模,得到混凝土剩余寿命的边缘分布函数;再通过Copula函数建立各退化因素间的相关关系,将混凝土剩余寿命的边缘分布进行融合,得到其联合分布函数.结果表明:选择质量损失和超声声速这2个退化因素有助于建立混凝土在现场暴露环境下的退化模型,并得到其剩余寿命的边缘分布函数;基于Copula函数预测西宁市现场暴露环境下的混凝土使用寿命约225个月,损伤发展始于第180个月左右.
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem of life prediction of concrete structures in field exposed environment in foundation engineering, a method of residual life prediction with multiple degradation factors based on Copula function is proposed. Mass loss and ultrasonic velocity are selected as the key degradation factors. According to the different degradation trajectories, the degradation modeling of the actual collected data is carried out, and the edge distribution function of the residual life of concrete is obtained, and the correlation among the degradation factors is established by the Copula function. The edge distribution of the residual life of concrete is fused and the joint distribution function is obtained. The results show that the selection of two degradation factors, mass loss and ultrasonic velocity, is helpful to establish the degradation model of concrete in the field exposed environment. The edge distribution function of its residual life is obtained, and the service life of concrete in Xining exposed environment is predicted by Copula function, and the damage development begins at about 180 months.
【作者单位】：兰州理工大学甘肃省土木工程防灾减灾重点实验室;兰州理工大学西部土木工程防灾减灾教育部工程研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51168031,51468039)
【分类号】：TU528.01

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