道路危险化学品运输风险评估模型及选线优化研究
发布时间：2018-10-30 09:16
【摘要】：伴随着国家化工工业的迅猛发展,危险化学品得到了广泛的利用,而其在运输、储存、使用的过程中所引发的安全事故也层出不穷,对人民群众的生命财产安全造成了重大的影响。据统计,在危险化学品事故中,道路危险化学品的运输活动出现事故的概率最高。由于道路危险化学品运输是一个时时变化的动态系统,涉及人员、车辆、危险化学品类别、运输道路、天气状况等众多因素,而系统中任一因素都有可能导致危险化学品运输事故的发生;同时,为了加强运输系统的安全性,排除危险因素,除了采用完善人员、车辆、安全设施等措施外,合理地选择运输路线能够有利地避开不安全因素,并降低事故对周围人员及环境带来的损失。因此,为了全面、准确地预估道路危险化学品运输活动中存在的风险,及时做好事故防范措施,建立了道路危险化学品运输风险评估模型及选线优化评价模型。具体研究内容大致可以分为以下四个部分:(1)了解道路危险化学品运输系统各要素内容及特点,包括危险化学品类别、运输道路、从业人员、运输车辆与设备设施。并应用安全统计学基本原理,对2013-2014年道路危险化学品运输事故的事故类型、致因因素、危险化学品种类、事故发生时间进行了统计,以获得事故发生与发展的基本规律。(2)通过事故率与事故后果两大指标建立道路危险化学品运输风险评估模型。对“人”、“物”、“环”、“管”四大因素展开分析,将道路特征、天气状况、交通量、危险化学品特性等作为修正系数以建立事故率计算模型;通过ALOHA模拟软件对危险化学品事故的影响范围进行模拟运用,并以事故率与事故影响范围为基本参数,从人员伤亡、环境影响以及财产损失三方面计算道路危险化学品运输事故的后果严重度。(3)根据多目标规划方法,建立运输风险与运输成本共同制衡的的双目标函数关系,并通过层次分析法确立各评价指标的权重值,建立道路危险化学品运输选线评价模型。(4)通过实例分析对文中建立的风险评价模型及选线优化综合评估模型进行验证,通过数据代入与计算,得到各路段风险总值与综合评价值,选出最优路径,证明了文中所建模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national chemical industry, hazardous chemicals have been widely used, and their transportation, storage and use of the process of safety accidents are also endless. The safety of the people's lives and property has had a great impact. According to statistics, the probability of traffic accidents of road hazardous chemicals is the highest in hazardous chemical accidents. As road hazardous chemical transport is a dynamic system that is constantly changing, it involves people, vehicles, dangerous chemical categories, transport roads, weather conditions, and many other factors. Any factor in the system may lead to accidents in the transportation of dangerous chemicals; At the same time, in order to enhance the safety of the transportation system and eliminate the risk factors, in addition to adopting measures such as improving personnel, vehicles and safety facilities, reasonable choice of transportation routes can advantageously avoid unsafe factors. And reduce the accident to the surrounding personnel and environmental damage. Therefore, in order to estimate the risks in the transportation of road hazardous chemicals comprehensively and accurately, the risk assessment model and route selection optimization evaluation model of road hazardous chemicals transportation are established. The specific research contents can be divided into the following four parts: (1) understand the elements and characteristics of road hazardous chemicals transportation system, including hazardous chemicals categories, transport roads, practitioners, transport vehicles and equipment facilities. Based on the basic principles of safety statistics, the types of accidents, cause factors, types of dangerous chemicals, and the time of accidents occurring in the road transportation accidents of dangerous chemicals in 2013-2014 are analyzed. In order to obtain the basic law of accident occurrence and development. (2) establish the risk assessment model of road hazardous chemicals transportation through two indexes: accident rate and accident consequence. This paper analyzes the four factors of "person", "thing", "ring" and "management", and takes road characteristics, weather conditions, traffic volume and dangerous chemical characteristics as correction coefficients to establish a model for calculating accident rate. The influence range of hazardous chemical accident was simulated by ALOHA software, and the accident rate and accident impact range were taken as the basic parameters. The environmental impact and property loss are used to calculate the severity of road hazardous chemical transportation accidents. (3) based on the multi-objective programming method, a two-objective function relationship of transportation risk and transportation cost is established. The weight value of each evaluation index is established by AHP, and the evaluation model of route selection for road hazardous chemicals transportation is established. (4) the risk evaluation model and the comprehensive evaluation model of route selection optimization are verified by example analysis. Through data substitution and calculation, the total risk value and the comprehensive evaluation value of each section are obtained, and the optimal path is selected, which proves the feasibility of the model established in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TQ086.5
本文编号：2299583
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national chemical industry, hazardous chemicals have been widely used, and their transportation, storage and use of the process of safety accidents are also endless. The safety of the people's lives and property has had a great impact. According to statistics, the probability of traffic accidents of road hazardous chemicals is the highest in hazardous chemical accidents. As road hazardous chemical transport is a dynamic system that is constantly changing, it involves people, vehicles, dangerous chemical categories, transport roads, weather conditions, and many other factors. Any factor in the system may lead to accidents in the transportation of dangerous chemicals; At the same time, in order to enhance the safety of the transportation system and eliminate the risk factors, in addition to adopting measures such as improving personnel, vehicles and safety facilities, reasonable choice of transportation routes can advantageously avoid unsafe factors. And reduce the accident to the surrounding personnel and environmental damage. Therefore, in order to estimate the risks in the transportation of road hazardous chemicals comprehensively and accurately, the risk assessment model and route selection optimization evaluation model of road hazardous chemicals transportation are established. The specific research contents can be divided into the following four parts: (1) understand the elements and characteristics of road hazardous chemicals transportation system, including hazardous chemicals categories, transport roads, practitioners, transport vehicles and equipment facilities. Based on the basic principles of safety statistics, the types of accidents, cause factors, types of dangerous chemicals, and the time of accidents occurring in the road transportation accidents of dangerous chemicals in 2013-2014 are analyzed. In order to obtain the basic law of accident occurrence and development. (2) establish the risk assessment model of road hazardous chemicals transportation through two indexes: accident rate and accident consequence. This paper analyzes the four factors of "person", "thing", "ring" and "management", and takes road characteristics, weather conditions, traffic volume and dangerous chemical characteristics as correction coefficients to establish a model for calculating accident rate. The influence range of hazardous chemical accident was simulated by ALOHA software, and the accident rate and accident impact range were taken as the basic parameters. The environmental impact and property loss are used to calculate the severity of road hazardous chemical transportation accidents. (3) based on the multi-objective programming method, a two-objective function relationship of transportation risk and transportation cost is established. The weight value of each evaluation index is established by AHP, and the evaluation model of route selection for road hazardous chemicals transportation is established. (4) the risk evaluation model and the comprehensive evaluation model of route selection optimization are verified by example analysis. Through data substitution and calculation, the total risk value and the comprehensive evaluation value of each section are obtained, and the optimal path is selected, which proves the feasibility of the model established in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TQ086.5
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前7条
1 辛春林;王金连;;危险化学品运输事故历史数据研究综述[J];中国安全科学学报;2012年07期
2 吕品;;基于GIS-AHP方法的危险品物流运输选线研究[J];西部交通科技;2011年12期
3 张丽;柏萍;;2006～2007年危险化学品运输事故分析研究[J];中国安全生产科学技术;2008年06期
4 高建刚;陈宏云;郑昊;;危险货物道路运输事故统计分析[J];中国安全科学学报;2007年08期
5 李海江;;危险化学品突发事故环境污染诱因及对策初探[J];工业安全与环保;2007年06期
6 任常兴;吴宗之;;危险品道路运输选线问题分析[J];安全与环境学报;2006年02期
7 戴西超,张庆春;综合评价中权重系数确定方法的比较研究[J];煤炭经济研究;2003年11期
，本文编号：2299583
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/huagong/2299583.html
