武汉城市交通碳排放的时空演化及影响机制研究

发布时间：2017-12-26 18:19

本文关键词：武汉城市交通碳排放的时空演化及影响机制研究　出处：《华中师范大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,城市经济飞速发展和城市空间不断扩张,居民出行需求迅猛增长,城市机动化程度大大提高,带来交通能源消费量和碳排放量剧增、城市交通拥堵、雾霾污染频发等负外部性效应,城市——已然成为交通碳排放最突出的空间单元。因此,如何实现城市交通的可持续发展、解决交通发展需求与节能减排的矛盾,成为亟待解决的重要课题。本研究从这一问题导向出发,对武汉市交通碳排放的时空演化及影响机制进行分析,以期为减少城市交通碳排放量、建设"低碳交通"提供理论指导和借鉴。当前有关城市交通碳排放的研究大多集中于城市整体交通碳排放的计算及影响因素研究等方面,对交通碳排放的空间分析相对较少,从而使得城市交通碳排放无法"落地"并制定针对性的减排策略。基于此,本研究以构建的交通碳排放模型和GIS空间分析方法为基础,从地理学的空间视角出发,以武汉市2003-2013年空间矢量数据、交通发展数据、社会经济数据等为依托,建立基于交通供给—需求的交通碳排放空间分配指标体系和空间分配模型,详细分析武汉市2003-2013年交通碳排放的时空演化及影响机制,对合理引导城市交通发展方向、减少交通碳排放量,制定因地制宜的交通碳减排策略,加快建成"低碳交通"具有重要的现实指导意义。主要研究结论和研究成果如下:(1)2003-2013年武汉市综合交通碳排放总体呈线性递增趋势,并表现出波动下降——稳步增长——快速上升的阶段性演化特征。2003-2013年武汉市综合交通碳排放总量从2003年的190.23万吨上升到2013年的585.43万吨,其组成结构差异显著扩大,结构形态趋向于"倒金字塔"形的失稳态演化;其中公共交通、私人交通、货运交通和其他交通方式的碳排放比例结构由2003年的35.5%:38.0%:17.1%:9.4%演化为2013年的17.1%:68.6%:11.3%:3.0%。公共交通碳排放的时序变化呈"螺旋态"演进趋势,其占综合交通碳排放的比重显著下降。私人交通碳排放成为综合交通碳排放的"序参量",其碳排放量由2003年的72.4万吨增长到2013年的401.9万吨。城市交通碳排放效率是多因素耦合作用的结果,常规公交车碳排放效率最高,私家车碳排放效率最低。(2)城市交通碳排放是交通供给——交通需求两大模块要素协同耦合作用的结果。交通供给模块是交通碳排放产生的物质基础和空间载体,交通需求模块是交通碳排放产生的驱动力,是出行者满足自身出行需求的产物。(3)武汉市交通碳排放的整体空间格局演化特征表现为:由中心极化结构向"核心—外围"圈层结构演化,且在平稳演化过程中逐渐"锁定"下来。武汉市交通碳排放高值区的分布以三环内区域为中心沿轨道交通1、2号线方向呈"人"字形延伸。汉口中心区和东湖新技术开发区是主要高碳聚集地,区域间交通碳排放总量的差异呈先扩大后缩小的趋势。人均交通碳排放的区域分布表现出内陷的"盆地形"结构特征,与区域交通碳排放总量的空间分布格局呈倒置关系,中间低、外围高、沿凸出条带呈放射状分布的总体格局保持稳定,三环线以内人均交通碳排放量最低,沿三环线周围人均交通碳排放最高。地均交通碳排放的空间分布格局呈中心极化型的集聚分布特征,且空间分布格局变动较小,表现出收缩和割离趋势。各区域人均、地均交通碳排放量持续增长,区域间人均、地均交通碳排放差异扩大,不均衡性增强。(4)城市交通碳排放与经济社会等因素间的相关性较强,呈显著的异速生长关系。城市经济发展、城市扩张和基础设施建设等指标与交通碳排放呈负异速生长关系,人口、机动车数量与交通碳排放呈正异速生长关系。机动车数量和公路里程是交通碳排放"成长"的决定性因素,其与交通碳排放呈显著正相关关系。机动车总数增加带来的碳排放增加量远大于节能减排技术进步和燃油效率提高带来的碳排放减少量,公路里程的增长对汽车出行者造成刺激和鼓励作用,道路交通供给的增加反过来产生了新的交通碳排放诱增量。(5)基于对武汉市交通碳排放时空演化及影响机制的研究,本文从"源头—过程—末端"角度针对性的提出完整的低碳交通优化路径。第一,规划引导(源头)层面,从土地利用规划、交通规划、城市空间规划等角度提出优化措施。第二,交通供给优化(过程)层面,从优化交通供给结构、提升交通供给水平两方面提出策略建议。第三,交通需求调控(末端)层面,从控制小汽车过快增长、加强绿色交通方式推广、加强交通管理与调控等方面提出调控对策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid economic development of city and city space expansion, the rapid growth of city residents travel demand, mechanization degree is greatly improved, bring traffic energy consumption and carbon emissions increase, city traffic congestion, pollution haze frequent negative externalities, city has become the most prominent space unit of traffic carbon emissions. Therefore, how to realize the sustainable development of urban traffic, to solve the contradiction between the demand of traffic development and the energy saving and emission reduction has become an important issue to be solved urgently. Based on this problem orientation, this study analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution and impact mechanism of traffic carbon emissions in Wuhan, in order to provide theoretical guidance and reference for reducing urban traffic carbon emissions and building "low-carbon traffic". The current research on city traffic carbon emissions are mostly concentrated on the whole city traffic carbon emissions calculation and influence factors of traffic carbon emissions research, spatial analysis is relatively small, so that the city can not transport carbon emissions "landing" and to develop targeted mitigation strategies. Based on this, the traffic carbon emission model and GIS space based on the construction method for the foundation, starting from the spatial perspective of geography, based on Wuhan 2003-2013 space vector data, traffic data, the development of social economic data as the basis, the establishment of traffic supply - demand of traffic carbon emissions space allocation index system and space allocation based on the model, a detailed analysis of spatial evolution and influence of 2003-2013 traffic carbon emission mechanism in Wuhan City, to guide the rational development of city traffic direction, reduce traffic emissions, making traffic carbon emission reduction measures to local conditions, to speed up the completion of "has important practical significance of low carbon transport". The main conclusions and research results are as follows: (1) in the 2003-2013 years, the carbon emissions of Wuhan's comprehensive transportation showed a linear increasing trend, and showed a gradual decline of steady growth -- a rapid evolution. 2003-2013 Wuhan city comprehensive traffic carbon emissions increased from 1 million 902 thousand and 300 tons in 2003 to 5 million 854 thousand and 300 tons in 2013, its structure significantly expanded, the structure tends to form the "inverted Pyramid" shape instability evolution; the proportion of carbon emissions among the structure of public transportation, private traffic, freight traffic and other traffic modes by 2003 35.5%: 38%: 17.1%: 9.4% for the 2013 17.1% evolution: 68.6%: 11.3%: 3%. The time series of carbon emissions in public transport has a "spiral" trend, and its proportion to comprehensive traffic carbon emissions is significantly reduced. Carbon emissions from private transportation have become a "sequence parameter" of integrated traffic carbon emissions, and their carbon emissions increased from 724 thousand tons in 2003 to 4 million 19 thousand tons in 2013. The carbon emission efficiency of urban traffic is the result of multi factor coupling, the efficiency of conventional bus carbon emission is the highest, and the carbon emission efficiency of private car is the lowest. (2) the carbon emission of urban traffic is the result of the synergistic coupling effect of two major modules of traffic demand - traffic demand. Traffic supply module is the material basis and space carrier of traffic carbon emissions. Traffic demand module is the driving force of traffic carbon emissions, and it is a product of travelers meeting their travel needs. (3) the overall spatial pattern of transportation carbon emissions in Wuhan is characterized by the evolution from the central polarization structure to the core periphery structure, and gradually locked down in the process of steady evolution. The distribution of high value area of traffic carbon emission in Wuhan is in the center of the three ring region, which extends along the direction of "human" in the direction of rail transit 1 and line 2. The central area of Hankou and the new technology development zone in East Lake are the main high carbon areas. The difference of the total amount of carbon emissions between regions shows a tendency to expand first and then reduce. The per capita traffic carbon emissions of regional distribution showed invagination of the "basin" structure, and the carbon emissions of regional traffic spatial distribution pattern is inverted, low, middle, high convex strip along the periphery of a general pattern of radial distribution remained stable, tricyclic line within the minimum carbon emissions per capita traffic along. The three ring around the highest carbon emissions per capita traffic. The spatial distribution pattern of land average traffic carbon emissions is characterized by centrally polarized distribution, and the spatial distribution pattern changes little, showing the trend of contraction and cut off. The per capita and ground average traffic carbon emissions in each region continued to increase, and the regional per capita and ground average traffic carbon emission differences expanded, and the imbalance increased. (4) the correlation between urban traffic carbon emission and economic and social factors is strong, and it has a significant relationship of different speed growth. Indicators such as urban economic development, urban expansion and infrastructure construction have a negative allometric relationship with traffic carbon emissions. The number of population and motor vehicles is positively correlated with traffic carbon emissions. The number of motor vehicles and the road mileage are the decisive factors of the "growth" of the traffic carbon emissions, which have a significant positive correlation with the traffic carbon emissions. The total number of motor vehicles increased carbon emissions increase is much larger than the amount of energy saving and emission reduction technology progress and improve fuel efficiency of the carbon emission reduction amount, highway mileage increases to stimulate and encourage the automobile travelers, increase road traffic supply in turn creates new traffic carbon emissions by increment. (5) based on the research on the spatial and temporal evolution and impact mechanism of traffic carbon emissions in Wuhan, this paper proposes a complete low-carbon transportation optimization path from the perspective of "source process end". First, the planning guidance (source) level, from the land use planning, transportation planning, urban space planning and other aspects of optimization measures. Second, the transport supply optimization (process) level, from the optimization of the transport supply structure, improve the level of traffic supply level two aspects of the proposed strategy. Third, traffic demand regulation (Mo Duan) level, from the control of excessive growth of cars, strengthen the promotion of green traffic mode, strengthen traffic management and regulation and other aspects, put forward countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X73

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