城市人口规模对环境污染的门槛效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 04:24

本文关键词：城市人口规模对环境污染的门槛效应研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：十八大首次把生态文明列入五位一体的社会主义现代化建设中,并首次提出美丽中国的新理念。但随着我国经济社会的迅速发展,环境污染问题却成为经济社会发展的重要瓶颈,也成为很多学者研究的重点。而城市经济发展状况和环境污染之间很可能会因为城市人口规模的不同而具有不同程度的关系,具体可表现为区间效应。那么,城市人口规模是否与环境污染具有关系,是否具有一定门槛效应,即城市人口达到一定规模会加剧或减缓环境污染?具体到区域分析,如全国的东部、中部和西部地区又会有着怎样的共同点和区别点?这些都是需要进一步研究和探讨的问题,将对我国的人口、经济与环境提供一定的理论和实践参考。本文基于环境库茨涅茨曲线(EKC)理论,主要考虑环境污染中的工业SO2和工业废水排放量进行分析,在探究经济发展水平、人口规模与环境污染关系的基础上,通过运用Hansen首次提出的门槛回归模型,建立城市人口规模对环境污染的门槛效应回归模型,运用2000-2012年中国286个城市数据,分别从全国城市和东中西部区域分析的角度,综合考察城市人口规模对环境污染的影响,同时探究环境污染水平是否存在人口规模的门槛效应,以及在不同的人口规模水平下影响环境污染因素的作用机制。研究结果表明,从全国城市的角度,人口规模作为影响经济发展水平的重要渠道,对环境污染有显著门槛效应。人口规模若处于46万到500万门槛区间内,经济发展将会加剧环境污染,人口规模低于46万或高于500万,则不会加剧环境污染,且我国大部分城市还是处于经济发展不利于环境发展的时期内。从东中西区域分析的角度,不同区域具有不同的门槛效应和门槛值。因此,合理调控人口规模,逐步调整产业结构和提高技术水平,协调好人口、经济与环境之间的和谐发展刻不容缓。
[Abstract]:For the first time in 18, ecological civilization was included in the five-in-one socialist modernization construction, and the new concept of beautiful China was put forward for the first time. However, with the rapid development of China's economy and society. However, environmental pollution has become an important bottleneck of economic and social development. Also become the focus of many scholars. And the urban economic development and environmental pollution will probably have different degrees of relationship due to the different size of the urban population, the specific performance of the interval effect. Whether the scale of urban population is related to environmental pollution, whether it has a certain threshold effect, that is, urban population to a certain scale will aggravate or mitigate environmental pollution? Specific to the regional analysis, such as the eastern, central and western regions of the country will have what common points and differences? These problems need to be further studied and discussed, which will provide some theoretical and practical reference for the population, economy and environment of our country. This paper is based on the EKCtheory of Kutznitz Curve. Based on the analysis of industrial SO2 and industrial wastewater discharge in environmental pollution, the relationship among economic development level, population scale and environmental pollution is explored. By using the threshold regression model proposed by Hansen for the first time, the threshold effect regression model of urban population size on environmental pollution is established. The data of 286 cities in China from 2000 to 2012 are used. From the point of view of the analysis of the cities in the whole country and the east, west and west regions, this paper comprehensively investigates the impact of the urban population scale on the environmental pollution, and probes into whether there exists the threshold effect of the population scale in the level of environmental pollution. The results show that from the perspective of national cities, population size is an important channel to affect the level of economic development. If the population size is in the range of 460,000 to 5 million, the economic development will aggravate the environmental pollution, the population scale is less than 460,000 or higher than 5 million. Will not aggravate environmental pollution, and most of our cities are still in the economic development is not conducive to the development of the environment in the period. Different regions have different threshold effect and threshold value. Therefore, it is urgent to adjust the population scale rationally, adjust the industrial structure and raise the technical level step by step, and coordinate the harmonious development between population, economy and environment.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：C92-05;X24

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