城市雾霾的外部成因及对公众的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-14 22:04

本文关键词：城市雾霾的外部成因及对公众的影响分析　出处：《中国科学技术大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着空气质量的恶化,雾霾天气显著增多,造成的危害也越发严重。雾霾是大气污染的一种状态,其形成有气候、气象等自然条件的原因,但更主要是人为的因素,例如工业排放,机动车尾气,冬季燃煤,建筑扬尘等。雾霾的防治需从清理污染源头入手,因此有必要对影响城市空气质量的社会经济变量进行研究,这对于理清雾霾的来源,增强对雾霾成因的理性认识,提高雾霾治理效率,改善城市空气质量具有至关重要的作用。雾霾作为一种公共危机事件,引起了学者和公众的广泛关注。在雾霾危机事件中,公众风险感知不仅对个体在事件中的决策行为产生影响,也可以从根本上推动或抑制危机事件中的经济和社会行为,进而影响政府决策。因此,研究雾霾危机事件中的公众风险感知和行为反应对于政府了解公众的应急决策特点,提高危机应对的决策水平具有重要的意义。首先,本文从人口数量,经济水平,经济结构,城市化水平,机动车数量,能源消费、城市空气质量达标天数等变量入手选取相应的指标进行相关性分析,并提取影响城市空气质量的显著变量进行多元线性回归。分析结果表明,人均GDP和单位GDP能耗是显著影响城市空气质量达标天数的变量；当人均GDP增加1000元,单位GDP下降0.1吨时,空气达标天数将相应增加2天和5天。这表明转变经济增长方式,提高经济发展质量,调整能源消费结构,降低单位GDP能耗,是治理雾霾,改善空气质量的必由之路。其次,本文以防护性行为决策模型(PADM模型)为理论基础,通过问卷调研分析了雾霾危机情景下公众的风险感知差异及其对防护性行为决策的影响。研究结果表明,公众对雾霾危害性有较高水平的风险感知,但是感知水平和行为意向之间存在较大差距；在雾霾信息获取方面,公众对全国性新闻网站、社交媒体、国家或省级电视台、专家学者等信息渠道最为依赖,对市级政府提供的雾霾信息最不信任,揭示了地方政府提高公信力的紧迫性；此外,公众认为政府应承担起防治雾霾的主要责任,其次是工业和建筑企业,再次是公众个体,然而归因于公众个体的被调查者表现出更高水平的防护性行为意向,这表明提高公众的责任意识有助于提高公众参与治理雾霾的效率。
[Abstract]:With the deterioration of air quality, the weather of haze increases significantly, and the harm is more serious. Haze is a state of air pollution, which is caused by natural conditions such as climate, meteorology and so on. But it is mainly human factors, such as industrial emissions, motor vehicle emissions, coal burning in winter, building dust and so on. The prevention and control of smog should start from cleaning up the source of pollution. Therefore, it is necessary to study the social and economic variables that affect urban air quality, which can clarify the source of haze, enhance the rational understanding of the causes of haze, and improve the efficiency of haze governance. Improving urban air quality plays a vital role. Haze, as a public crisis event, has attracted the attention of scholars and the public. In the haze crisis event, public risk perception not only has an impact on the individual decision-making behavior in the event. It can also fundamentally promote or suppress economic and social behavior in crisis events, thereby influencing government decision-making. It is of great significance for the government to understand the characteristics of the public emergency decision and to improve the decision-making level of the crisis response by studying the public risk perception and behavior response in the haze crisis. First of all, this paper from the population, economic level, economic structure, urbanization level, the number of motor vehicles, energy consumption, urban air quality standard days and other variables to select the corresponding indicators for correlation analysis. The significant variables affecting urban air quality were extracted for multivariate linear regression. The results showed that per capita GDP and energy consumption per unit GDP were the variables that significantly affected the number of days of urban air quality reaching the standard. When the per capita GDP increases 1, 000 yuan and the unit GDP drops 0. 1 ton, the number of days of air reaching the standard will increase by 2 days and 5 days accordingly. This indicates that the economic growth pattern should be changed and the quality of economic development will be improved. Adjusting energy consumption structure and reducing energy consumption per unit GDP are the only way to control smog and improve air quality. Secondly, this paper is based on the protective behavior decision model (PADM model). The difference of the public's risk perception and its influence on the protective behavior decision under the haze crisis situation are analyzed by questionnaire. The results show that the public has a high level of risk perception about the harm of haze. But there is a big gap between perceived level and behavioral intention. In terms of access to haze information, the public relies most on national news websites, social media, national or provincial television stations, experts and scholars, and most distrust of the haze information provided by municipal governments. It reveals the urgency of improving the credibility of local governments; In addition, the public believes that the government should assume the primary responsibility for the prevention and treatment of haze, followed by industrial and construction enterprises, and then the public individual. However, the respondents who were attributed to the public individuals showed a higher level of protective behavior intention, which indicated that raising public awareness of responsibility was helpful to improve the efficiency of public participation in haze governance.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X513;X823

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