我国城市生活垃圾处理现状及清运量预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 02:15

本文关键词：我国城市生活垃圾处理现状及清运量预测研究　出处：《天津财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程加速推进,城市经济快速发展,城市生活垃圾产生量也与日俱增,然而当前一些垃圾处理基础设施不能满足经济快速发展的需求,就导致很多城市被垃圾包围,长此以往,这不仅会造成严重的环境污染,阻碍经济的增长,更会对居民身体造成一定的威胁。近几年,国家越来越重视城市垃圾的问题,加大了对购买和改进基础设备的投资,力争使垃圾进行完全无害化处理.因此,为了构造和谐、稳定、健康的发展环境,准确的对我国城市生活垃圾清运量的预测就显得十分重要。论文一方面通过对我国城市生活垃圾清运量的处理现状进行了分析,指出当前处理中存在的问题,并与国外发达城市垃圾处理方法进行了对比。另一方面对城市垃圾清运量主要影响因素进行了定性的分析,从中选取了10个垃圾清运量的影响因素,针对1995-2013年我国城市生活垃圾清运量及其影响因素的数据,运用关联度分析方法得到了和垃圾清运量最相关的4个主要影响因素。分别利用单项预测模型：逐步回归模型、指数平滑模型、GM(1,1)模型对1995-2013年垃圾清运量进行预测精度检验,并预测了未来10年城市生活垃圾清运量。而后在三种单项预测的基础上,基于误差平方和平方根最小原则,构建了变权和不变权组合预测模型。通过对比五种模型的预测精度,表明组合模型明显优于单项模型,它融合了各种单项模型的优点,更能够准确的预测城市垃圾清运量。根据变权组合模型预测,我国城市垃圾清运量在2023年将达到22714.83万吨,2014-2023年呈现缓慢的增长过程,平均每年增加474.23万吨,平均增长率为2.79%.研究结果表明,变权组合模型在城市生活垃圾清运量的预测中,有较高的预测精度,其预测结果可以作为国家政府制定相关垃圾处理政策的重要依据。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the rapid development of urban economy, urban domestic waste production is also increasing, but some of the current waste treatment infrastructure can not meet the needs of rapid economic development. As a result, many cities are surrounded by garbage. In the long run, this will not only cause serious environmental pollution, hinder economic growth, but also pose a certain threat to the health of residents in recent years. The country has paid more and more attention to the problem of urban garbage, increased the investment in purchasing and improving the basic equipment, and strived to make the garbage completely harmless. Therefore, in order to construct a harmonious, stable and healthy development environment. It is very important to predict the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) removal and transportation accurately. On the one hand, the paper analyzes the current situation of the disposal of MSW in China, and points out the existing problems in the current treatment. On the other hand, qualitative analysis of the main factors affecting the amount of urban garbage removal is carried out, from which 10 factors are selected. The data of the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) in China from 1995 to 2013 and its influencing factors are discussed. By using the method of correlation analysis, four main influencing factors are obtained, which are most relevant to the volume of garbage removal. The single prediction model: stepwise regression model and exponential smoothing model are used respectively. The results are as follows: 1) the model tests the prediction accuracy of the garbage removal volume from 1995 to 2013 and forecasts the municipal solid waste removal volume in the next 10 years. Then on the basis of three single forecasts. Based on the principle of minimum error square and square root, the combined prediction model with variable weight and invariant weight is constructed. By comparing the prediction accuracy of the five models, it is shown that the combined model is obviously superior to the single model. It combines the advantages of a variety of individual models, and can accurately predict the amount of urban garbage removal. According to the variable weight combination model, the volume of urban garbage removal in China will reach two hundred and twenty-seven million one hundred and forty-eight thousand and three hundred tons in 2023. 2014-2023 showed a slow growth process, with an average annual increase of four million seven hundred and forty-two thousand and three hundred tons and an average growth rate of 2.79. The variable weight combination model has a high prediction precision in the prediction of municipal solid waste (MSW) removal volume, and its prediction results can be used as an important basis for the national government to formulate relevant garbage disposal policies.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X799.3

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