基于Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差分析的水质变化趋势

发布时间：2018-01-21 20:36

本文关键词： 水质变化趋势 Mann-Kendall检验重标极差分析长程相关性　出处：《生态与农村环境学报》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：将Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差(R/S)分析相结合,建立了一套综合分析过去和未来水质变化趋势的方法。首先,用季节性Mann-Kendall检验识别水质时间序列的过去变化趋势;然后,用R/S分析方法计算水质时间序列的Hurst指数(IH),0IH0.5、0.5IH1.0和IH=0.5分别指示反持续性、持续性和白噪声特征;最后,结合水环境保护规划和进展综合推断水质的未来变化趋势。基于2010—2014年珊溪水库及其6条入库支流TN浓度和CODMn,对该方法进行实例研究。结果表明,未来大部分支流的水质将会停止恶化或得到持续改善,然而水库TN浓度仍无明显下降趋势。水库对TN的滞留效应较强,且污染来源较多,水质的根本性改善将是一个长期的过程。除了继续控制入库支流污染,还要控制消落带污染和内源污染。
[Abstract]:By combining the Mann-Kendall test with the rescaled range difference analysis, a set of methods to analyze the trend of water quality change in the past and in the future are established. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test was used to identify the past trends of water quality time series. Then, the Hurst exponent of water quality time series calculated by R- S analysis method is 0. 5IH0. 5IH1.0 and 0. 5IH1.0 and IH=0.5 respectively indicates the anti-persistence. Persistence and white noise characteristics; Finally, combined with water environmental protection planning and progress, the future trend of water quality change is inferred. Based on the TN concentration and CODMn of Shanxi Reservoir and its six tributaries from 2010 to 2014. The results show that the water quality of most tributaries will stop to deteriorate or continue to improve in the future, but the concentration of TN in the reservoir will not decrease obviously, and the retention effect of the reservoir on TN will be stronger. There are many sources of pollution, and the fundamental improvement of water quality will be a long-term process. In addition to continuing to control the pollution of the inflow tributaries, it is also necessary to control the pollution of the fallout zone and the internal pollution.
【作者单位】：温州市水利局珊溪管理局;温州医科大学浙南水科学研究院;浙江省流域水环境与健康风险研究重点实验室;温州医科大学环境与公共卫生学院环境科学系;
【基金】：温州市公益性科技计划(S20140014) 温州市水体污染控制与治理科技创新项目(S20140039;S20140037) 温州医科大学人才科研启动基金(QTJ14045) 浙江省自然科学基金(LQ16C030004)
【分类号】：X824
【正文快照】： 由于水环境保护长期滞后于经济发展,水污染特别是饮用水污染已成为制约许多国家和地区可持续发展的突出问题,水环境特别是水源地环境质量的改善已成为事关国计民生的重大事项。由于水环境系统的复杂性,水质数据资料往往具有非正态性、季节变异性、出现漏测值和小于检测限值等

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