基于系统动力学的湖南省通道县生态县建设规划研究

发布时间：2018-01-25 20:51

  本文关键词： 系统动力学 仿真模型 生态县建设规划 通道县　出处：《湖南农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以湖南省通道侗族自治县为例,运用系统动力学方法建立了包含人口、经济、资源利用、环境保护4个子系统的系统动力学仿真模型,通过仿真模拟探索当前最适宜通道县发展的生态县建设方案。主要研究结论如下：1、运用层次分析法构建了包含经济发展、生态环境保护、社会进步三个方面共27个指标的可持续发展评价指标体系；2、运用模型对通道县2003-2013年县域发展情况进行模拟,选取总人口、GDP总量以及固定资产总投资为检验对象。结果显示：仿真预测值与实际统计值吻合度较高,两者相对误差控制在3.32%范围之内,表明模型拟合性较好,可用于模拟与预测；3、对上述模型进行灵敏度分析,结果表明,人口自然增长率、固定资产总投资增长率、工业固定资产投资比例、第三产业固定资产投资比例、环保投资比例、耕地减少率、森林砍伐率、沼气池增加率8个参数对系统影响比较显著。对这8个参数进行调控形成了4种发展模式：自然发展模式、快速发展模式、环境保护发展模式、协调发展模式；4、对四种模式进行仿真模拟,结果显示：模式Ⅳ(协调发展模式)各项指标值、指标变化趋势以及系统可持续发展度均优于其他模式,为通道县当前生态县建设的最佳规划方案。该模式下人口增长率约5.6%o-6.0%o,固定资产投资增速约29%,工业固定资产投资比例约0.36～0.37,第三产业固定资产投资比例约0.39～0.40,环保投资比例约0.04,耕地减少率约0.012,森林砍伐率约0.009,沼气池增加率约0.039。
[Abstract]:Taking Dong Autonomous County of Hunan Province as an example, the simulation model of system dynamics including population, economy, resource utilization and environmental protection is established by using system dynamics method. Through simulation and simulation to explore the most suitable for the development of ecological county construction program. The main conclusions are as follows: 1, the use of analytic hierarchy process to construct the economic development, ecological environment protection. The sustainable development evaluation index system of 27 indexes in three aspects of social progress; 2. Use the model to simulate the county development from 2003 to 2013, and select the total population. The total amount of GDP and the total investment of fixed assets are tested. The results show that the simulation prediction value is in good agreement with the actual statistical value, and the relative error between them is controlled in the range of 3.32%. It shows that the model fits well and can be used for simulation and prediction. 3. The sensitivity analysis of the above model shows that the natural population growth rate, the total investment growth rate of fixed assets, the proportion of industrial fixed assets investment, the proportion of investment in fixed assets of tertiary industry, and the proportion of investment in environmental protection. The eight parameters of cultivated land reduction rate, forest deforestation rate and biogas digester increase rate had a significant effect on the system. Four development models were formed by adjusting the eight parameters: natural development model and rapid development model. Environmental protection development model, coordinated development model; 4. The four models are simulated, the results show that the index values of mode 鈪，

本文编号：1463670