基于土地利用变化的南京市碳储量与生物多样性功能模拟

发布时间：2018-01-26 13:28

本文关键词： Logistic模型 CA-Markov模型 InVEST模型情景模拟碳储量生物多样性　出处：《南京信息工程大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前区域土地利用模拟是LUCC近十年研究的热点,动态模拟土地利用变化是一个相当复杂的过程,它不仅受到自然、社会、经济、技术条件的影响,还因其时间跨度和空间影响范围而不同,而土地利用变化模型为我们理解土地利用变化过程和影响变化的驱动因子方面提供了重要手段。本研究主要针对目前国际上应用比较广泛的Logistic模型,在此基础上加入空间自相关变量,应用1985年、1995年、2005年、2015年四期土地利用数据,再结合CA-Markov模型模拟预测了南京市2025年三种不同情景(自然发展情景、生态保护情景和土地优化情景)下的土地利用发展方向；本文进一步结合InVEST模型,研究1985年、1995年、2005年、2015年四期土地利用变化下的碳储量和生物多样性服务功能分布和变化,以及2025年不同模拟情景下的碳储量和生物多样性服务功能分布情况。研究结果表明：改进后的Logistic回归模型拟合度高于传统Logistic模型,森林、草地、湿地、耕地、建设用地和未利用地的拟合优度有了较大的提升,分别从0.7995、0.7985、0.8417、0.8399、0.8491提高到了0.8057、0.8042、0.8339、0.8681和0.8554,此外2005年和2015年CA模型精度验证Kappa值为0.82和0.85,预测效果较好。在不同的情景设置下,土地利用存在明显的空间差异：自然发展情景按原有速率变化,则建设用地快速发展并占用大量耕地,碳储量降低5.06万吨,整体生境质量较2015年降低较多,生境退化明显；生态保护情景下耕地转换为建设用地的速率减缓了5%,对南京市的生态状况转变有极大好处,碳储量降低3.65万吨,是自然发展情景的72.13%,整体生境质量较自然发展情景有所提高,生境退化较自然发展情景缓解较多；土地优化情景兼顾发展对土地的需求,同时也注重保护生态环境,建设用地增加量为自然发展量的64%,碳储量减少3.76万吨,是自然发展的74.31%,整体生境质量较自然发展情景有所提高,生境退化较自然发展情景缓解较多,但均低于生态保护情景,保证了经济发展和生态保护的平衡。生态保护情景和土地优化情景对未来土地调控效果较好,可以为当地土地用总体规划提供科学决策参考。
[Abstract]:Regional land use simulation is a hot topic in recent ten years of LUCC. Dynamic simulation of land use change is a very complex process, which is not only affected by natural, social, economic and technical conditions. It also varies according to its time span and spatial impact. The land use change model provides an important means for us to understand the process of land use change and the driving factors that affect it. This study mainly focuses on the Logistic modules which are widely used in the world at present. Type. On this basis, spatial autocorrelation variables were added to apply the land use data of 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2005. Combined with CA-Markov model, the land use development direction of Nanjing in 2025 was predicted under three different scenarios (natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario and land optimization scenario). Combined with InVEST model, this paper studies the distribution and change of carbon storage and biodiversity service function under land use change in 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2005. And the distribution of carbon storage and biodiversity service function under different simulation scenarios in 2025. The results show that:. The fitting degree of the improved Logistic regression model is higher than that of the traditional Logistic model. The goodness of fit of forest, grassland, wetland, cultivated land, construction land and unused land were improved, from 0.7995U 0.7985 to 0.84170.399, respectively. 0.8491 was increased to 0.8057 (0.8042), 0.8339( 0.8681) and 0.8554 (0.8554). In addition, on 2005 and 2015, the Kappa values of CA model were 0.82 and 0.85 respectively, and the prediction effect was better. There are obvious spatial differences in land use: if the natural development scenario changes according to the original rate, the construction land will develop rapidly and occupy a large amount of cultivated land, and the carbon storage will be reduced by 50,600 tons. The overall habitat quality decreased more than in 2015, and the habitat degradation was obvious. The rate of conversion of cultivated land to construction land has been slowed down by 5% under the ecological protection scenario, which has great benefits for the transformation of ecological situation in Nanjing. The carbon storage is reduced by 36,500 tons, which is 72.13% of the natural development scenario. The overall habitat quality is better than the natural development scenario, and the habitat degradation is more alleviated than the natural development scenario. Land optimization scenario takes into account the demand for land, but also pays attention to the protection of the ecological environment. The increase of construction land is 64 percent of the natural development, and the carbon storage is reduced by 37,600 tons. The whole habitat quality is higher than the natural development scenario, the habitat degradation is more than the natural development scenario, but lower than the ecological protection scenario. The balance between economic development and ecological protection is ensured. The ecological protection scenarios and land optimization scenarios have better effects on land regulation and control in the future and can provide a scientific decision-making reference for the overall planning of local land use.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X176;F301.2

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