杭州市大气污染排放与空气质量非线性响应关系的研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 21:18

本文关键词： 响应曲面模型 CMAQ 细颗粒物控制减排　出处：《浙江大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：区域多尺度空气质量模型(CMAQ)是当前大气环境管理和科研领域的重要研究工具,已经在国内外取得了较好的应用。但是,由于CMAQ在实际使用过程中过于复杂、专业性太强,CMAQ的优势大打折扣。基于CMAQ实验排放控制矩阵模拟得到的污染物浓度响应,统计归纳出各污染物排放控制因子比例与污染物浓度之间的函数关系,也即响应曲面模型(RSM),可建立高效快速的“污染物排放-空气质量”响应模型,提高空气质量预测的系统性能,方便快捷地评估减排措施对污染物的控制效果、为制定优化控制方案提供科学依据。基于以上背景,本文开发了适用于杭州市细颗粒物(PM2.5)污染浓度预测的RSM。模型只需要输入有机碳(OC),黑碳(BC),可吸入颗粒物(PM1o),交通源排放氮氧化物(NOx),电厂源排放NOx,工业源排放NOx,交通源排放二氧化硫(SO2),电厂源排放S02,氨(NH3)以及挥发性有机物(VOC)等10个控制因子的参数组合,便可快速响应出该排放控制情景下对应的PM2.5浓度变化。在通过留一法交叉验证和外部验证对本文所建立的RSM的可靠性进行评价之后,应用该RSM对杭州市PM2.5的污染机制和来源进行了解析,评估了杭州市NH3排放与VOC排放对PM2.5的影响以及杭州市2020年的空气质量和减排政策的控制效果。研究的主要结论有：OC、BC口PM1o排放对PM2.5的贡献具有线性响应特征,NOx、SO2、NH3和VOC具有明显的非线性响应特征；同一污染物在不同季节对PM2.5的贡献不一样。杭州市冬季的PM2.5中一次污染物所占的比例比较多,夏季时,二次气溶胶所占的比例远远大于一次组分；在冬季,控制OC、BC和PM1o的排放可以有效减少PM2.5污染,当控制政策收紧时,NOx与NH3的影响才能明显显现。夏季,PM1o对PM2.5污染影响依旧较大,电厂NOx和工业NOx的影响明显高于其他。
[Abstract]:Multi scale model of regional air quality (CMAQ) is an important tool in the study of the atmospheric environmental management and scientific research, has achieved good application at home and abroad. However, due to the CMAQ in the actual use of the process is too complicated, too professional, the advantage of CMAQ greatly. CMAQ experimental emission control matrix simulation pollutant concentration obtained based on the response, summed up the statistical relationship between pollutant emission control factor and the proportion of pollutant concentration, i.e. the response surface model (RSM), can be established fast and efficient "emissions - air quality" response model, the system performance is improved air quality prediction, convenient to evaluate the control effect of pollutants emission reduction measures for the formulation, optimization control scheme and provide a scientific basis. Based on the above background, this paper developed for fine particles in Hangzhou city (PM2.5) pollution concentration forecast RSM. The model only need to enter the organic carbon (OC), black carbon (BC), respirable particulate matter (PM1o), traffic source emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), NOx power source emissions, NOx emissions from industrial sources, traffic source emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, power plant S02 (NH3), ammonia and volatile organic compound (VOC) parameters of 10 control factors, can quickly respond to changes in concentration of PM2.5 corresponding to the emission control scenarios. After the evaluation of reliability by leave one out cross validation and external validation to the establishment of RSM, application of pollution mechanism and source of the RSM PM2.5 in Hangzhou City the analysis, evaluation of control effect on PM2.5 NH3 emissions and VOC emissions in Hangzhou city and Hangzhou city in 2020 the air quality and emission reduction policy. The main conclusions of the study are: OC, BC and PM1o emissions contribute to PM2.5 with linear response characteristics, NOx, SO2, NH3 and VOC have obvious The nonlinear response characteristics; the same pollutants in different seasons. The contribution to PM2.5 of primary pollutants in Hangzhou city in winter PM2.5 in the proportion of more, in summer, two aerosol proportion is far greater than a component; in winter, the control of OC, BC and PM1o emissions can be effectively to reduce the pollution of PM2.5, when the control policy tightening, influence to NOx and NH3 was revealed. In summer, the effect of PM1o on PM2.5 pollution is still large, affect the plant NOx and industrial NOx is significantly higher than the other.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X51

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