环境污染治理投资额分析与预测

发布时间：2018-03-05 23:10

本文选题：环境污染治理投资额　切入点：现状分析　出处：《华中科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：环境与人类生活息息相关,为了保护生态环境,为了人类自身以及维护子孙后代的健康发展,必须积极防护和治理污染问题。环境污染治理投资作为治理环境污染最直接的手段,在政府预算中占据着相当重要的地位。本论文在深入剖析我国环境污染治理投资额现状基础之上,根据历年的治理投资额数据,利用统计预测模型,对投资额进行了预测。本文首先用描述性统计方法对治理投资额进行定性分析,根据分析得出需要进一步增加环境污染治理投资额总额、需要调整环境污染治理投资额结构转移投资重心的建议,而投资分配细化方面在满足城市环境基础设施建设和建设项目“三同时”的层面上要将投资重心转移到工业污染源治理方面。其次,本文介绍了统计预测以及时间序列分析相关的理念和模型,通过趋势外推法和灰色预测分别对我国2000年至2011年的治理投资额进行了建模分析,通过对模型的检验以及预测值与真实值的对比,认为两种模型均对历史数据得到了很好的拟合。“凡事预则立,不预则废”,预测与决策是相辅相成、不可分割的,预测作为决策的前提条件,科学地进行预测是进行合理决策的重要依据。根据论文分析得出的不管现状分析的结论,还是统计建模得出的预测,均旨在为政府相关部门的科学决策提供参考。
[Abstract]:The environment is closely related to human life, in order to protect the ecological environment, for the sake of mankind itself and for the healthy development of future generations, It is necessary to actively protect and control pollution. Investment in environmental pollution control is the most direct means of controlling environmental pollution. On the basis of deeply analyzing the present situation of the investment in environmental pollution control in China, according to the data of the investment in environmental pollution control in the past years, this paper uses the statistical prediction model. This paper first uses descriptive statistical method to qualitatively analyze the amount of investment in environmental pollution control, according to which the total amount of investment in environmental pollution control should be further increased. It is necessary to adjust the structure of the amount of investment in environmental pollution control to shift the focus of investment. On the level of satisfying the "three simultaneous" level of urban environmental infrastructure construction and construction projects, the focus of investment allocation should be shifted to the treatment of industrial pollution sources. Secondly, This paper introduces the concepts and models related to statistical prediction and time series analysis. Through the trend extrapolation method and grey forecast, the management investment from 2000 to 2011 in China is modeled and analyzed. Through the test of the model and the comparison between the predicted value and the real value, it is concluded that the two models are well fitted to the historical data. As a precondition of decision-making, scientific prediction is an important basis for rational decision-making. The aim is to provide reference for the scientific decision of the relevant government departments.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X321;X196

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