经济发展新常态下土地生态安全动态评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 07:11

本文选题：新常态　切入点：武汉城市圈　出处：《华中农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：党中央在十八届三中全会上明确指出“五位一体”的战略,生态文明建设被提升到国家宏观战略政策层面上,这一重要举措充分表明了党中央在环境保护上的改革决心。2014年国家主席习近平在河南视察时提出:当前我国的经济发展处于一个重要的时期,因此我们必须立足于当前我国经济发展的实际情况,面对当前的国际发展形势,保持一份平常的发展心态。因此在生态文明建设上,也应该立足当前的实际,主观上主动去适应经济发展新常态,满足广大人民群众对良好的自然生态环境的愿望,加大力度促进绿色发展新方式。土地作为人类发展的基础资源,为人类发展提供一切物质来源,是人类发展的先决条件。因此土地资源作为国民经济发展的物质载体,其安全问题对区域可持续发展具有重大影响作用。但在人类社会发展的过程中,人们对土地资源掠夺式的开发,给土地资源造成巨大的破坏,引起土地生态环境日益恶化,并严重威胁土地资源生态系统的自身安全和人类社会发展安全。故此,展开区域内土地生态安全现状研究显得十分的有必要。本文选取武汉城市圈各城市作为实证研究区域,在实证区域土地生态安全现状分析的基础上,以经济发展新常态为研究背景,并借鉴“压力-状态-响应”理论模型,选取武汉城市圈各城市自然、经济、社会三个层面的25个指标,运用遗传算法投影寻踪模型,对武汉城市圈各城市2003-2012年10年间土地生态安全现状进行评价,并根据遗传算法投影寻踪模型最佳投影方向值,对影响武汉城市圈各城市土地生态安全的影响因素进行分析,并在此基础上对区域内土地生态安全进行了发展趋势研究。根据土地生态安全影响因素分析可以看出武汉城市圈各城市土地生态安全现状主要受到人口压力、产业结构及资源利用的影响,致使土地生态环境状态日益恶化。运用灰色系统模型对实证区域各城市2013-2020年土地生态安全发展趋势研究得出期间各城市土地生态安全发展状态。根据本文研究结果表明,武汉城市圈各城市总体而言土地生态安全状态较为乐观,但是部分城市生态安全状态呈现下滑趋势。在趋势预测上,研究表明武汉城市圈各城市土地生态安全状态偶有下滑,但是总体下滑趋势不大,且长期发展势头走势良好,土地生态安全状态总体趋稳。
[Abstract]:At the third Plenary session of the 18 CPC Central Committee, the CPC Central Committee clearly pointed out the "five-in-one" strategy, and the construction of ecological civilization was promoted to the national macro-strategic policy level. This important move fully demonstrates the Party Central Committee's determination to reform on environmental protection. In 2014, when visiting Henan Province, President Xi Jinping put forward: at present, China's economic development is in an important period. Therefore, we must base ourselves on the actual situation of our country's economic development, face the current international development situation, and maintain a normal development mentality. Therefore, in the construction of ecological civilization, we should also base ourselves on the current reality. Subjectively, we should take the initiative to adapt to the new normal of economic development, satisfy the people's desire for a good natural ecological environment, and step up efforts to promote a new way of green development. Land, as the basic resource for human development, The provision of all sources of material for human development is a prerequisite for human development. Therefore, land resources serve as a material carrier for the development of the national economy, However, in the course of the development of human society, the predatory exploitation of land resources has caused great damage to the land resources and caused the deterioration of the ecological environment of the land. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the research on the present situation of land ecological security in the region. This paper selects the cities of Wuhan City Circle as the empirical research area. Based on the analysis of the present situation of regional land ecological security, taking the new normal of economic development as the research background, and using the theory model of "pressure-state-response" for reference, this paper selects the natural and economic aspects of each city in Wuhan urban circle. By using genetic algorithm projection pursuit model, 25 indexes of three levels of society are used to evaluate the present situation of land ecological security in Wuhan City Circle from 2003 to 2012, and according to the best projection direction value of genetic algorithm projection pursuit model, The factors influencing the ecological security of urban land in Wuhan City Circle are analyzed. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of land ecological security, it can be seen that the present situation of land ecological security in Wuhan urban circle is mainly under the pressure of population. The impact of industrial structure and resource utilization, The grey system model is used to study the development trend of land ecological security of cities in the region from 2013 to 2020. According to the research results of this paper, the development status of land ecological security in cities is obtained. The status of land ecological security in Wuhan urban circle is generally optimistic, but the ecological security state of some cities shows a downward trend. In the trend prediction, the research shows that the land ecological security state of Wuhan urban circle occasionally declines. But the overall decline trend is not big, and the long-term development trend is good, the land ecological security state generally tends to stabilize.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;X826

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