多尺度正负反馈交替论模型及其应用

发布时间：2018-03-12 23:23

本文选题：多尺度正负反馈交替论　切入点：多维泰勒网　出处：《控制理论与应用》2016年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：结合物质系统由量变到质变而呈现"平稳→剧变→再平稳→再剧变"这一变化规律,基于正负反馈交替论思想,提出了多尺度正负反馈交替论的数学模型.该模型引入等效正、负反馈作用,以状态变化速度作为第一尺度、状态变化加速度作为第二尺度进行等效正、负反馈作用的判定,根据状态变化剧烈程度以及剧烈变化趋势,将状态稳定性分离,以动力学方程形式表述物质系统的上述变化规律.该模型建立方法简单、实施方便,无需系统的内在机理或先验知识,是一种基于观测数据的通用模型.将该模型应用于时间序列预测,分别以空气质量指数AQI和大气主要污染物PM2.5数据为基础,进行系统建模及预报的仿真研究.结果表明,该模型能较准确反映系统的变化规律,能有效进行预报,且精度高,为具有量变引起质变而呈现出这一变化规律的复杂系统建模及预测提供了一种新颖而有效的手段.
[Abstract]:Combining material system from quantitative change to qualitative change to present "stationary" 鈫扗rastic change. 鈫扲estability. 鈫払ased on the idea of positive and negative feedback alternating theory, the mathematical model of multi-scale positive and negative feedback alternation theory is proposed. The model introduces equivalent positive and negative feedback effects and takes the state change rate as the first scale. As the second scale, the acceleration of state change is determined by equivalent positive and negative feedback, and the stability of the state is separated according to the intensity of the state change and the trend of the change. The above change law of material system is expressed in the form of dynamic equation. The method of establishing the model is simple and convenient, and the inherent mechanism or prior knowledge of the system is not needed. This model is a general model based on observation data. Based on air quality index (AQI) and air pollutant PM2.5 data, the model is applied to time series prediction. The model can accurately reflect the variation law of the system, can effectively predict, and has high precision. It provides a novel and effective method for modeling and prediction of complex systems with qualitative change caused by quantitative change.
【作者单位】：东南大学自动化学院;东南大学复杂工程系统测量与控制教育部重点实验室;南京信息工程大学信息与控制学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目(60934008) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2242014K10031) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目资助~~
【分类号】：TP183;X51

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