林业碳汇经济效益研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 10:32

本文选题：环境经济　切入点：碳交易　出处：《四川省社会科学院》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文从环境经济学、投资经济学、财务管理学理论出发,通过对国内外研究的整理,以及对国际国内林业碳汇及碳交易发展现状的分析,揭示出我国林业碳汇发展中存在的问题,基于四川CDM造林再造林项目的实证研究,以量化分析的方式阐释森林外部效益内部化的可行性与林业碳汇潜在的经济价值。本文选取四种有代表性的林业碳汇造林树种,研究其在林业碳汇造林情境下与非林业碳汇造林情景下的经济效益。采用异速生长方程法,长期趋势法,并按照CDM造林再造林方法学要求,采用生物量扩展因子法进行数据分析。研究得出,在项目期同为60年的情况下,非碳汇造林各树种的财务净现值均为负值,而碳汇造林均为正值且明显高于非碳汇造林情景;当项目期选取为各树种最佳项目期时,研究树种碳汇造林较非碳汇造林平均项目期高出16年,财务净现值为非碳汇造林财务净现值4.41倍。由于碳汇造林存在项目开发成本,规模越大分摊到单位面积的项目开发成本将越低,通过对不同规模下碳汇造林单位面积财务净现值的分析,得出随着规模的增大,面积增加引起的财务净现值的变化逐渐减小,当项目面积在500公顷以下时财务内部收益率变化相对比较明显,当超过500公顷后,变化相对不太明显。从树种来看,与传统造林相似,碳汇造林情景下速生树种经济效益依然高于慢生树种,但随着项目期的增长,慢生树种的经济效益会逐渐增加,甚至超过速生树种。根据研究结果,本文对林业碳汇项目树种选择、项目期选择、项目规模选择进行了优先性分析,同时对国内外不同的项目开发标准进行了阐述,为项目开发标准的选择提出建议,并对林业碳汇投资的注意事项以及风险进行了说明。我国尚处在林业碳汇发展初级阶段,还有很多亟待解决的问题,研究认为,定期组织林业碳汇相关知识培训将全面提高我国林业碳汇认知水平,有针对性地扶持林业碳汇咨询机构将为我国林业碳汇的发展提供技术保障,全面规划林业碳汇优先发展区域是进一步推进我国林业碳汇发展的重要任务,同时,在建设碳交易现货市场的同时我们也应开始逐步探索碳期货市场的建设。此外,在全国碳交易市场蓬勃发展之时,四川省也应加快推进碳交易机构备案工作并初步启动碳排放权配额交易。
[Abstract]:Based on the theories of environmental economics, investment economics and financial management, this paper analyzes the present situation of forestry carbon sinks and carbon trading in China and abroad. This paper reveals the problems existing in the development of forestry carbon sinks in China. The empirical study on afforestation and reforestation projects based on Sichuan CDM is carried out. The feasibility of the internalization of forest external benefits and the potential economic value of forest carbon sequestration were explained by quantitative analysis. Four representative forest carbon sequestration tree species were selected in this paper. The economic benefits of forest carbon sequestration and non-forestry carbon sequestration were studied. The method of allometric growth equation, long-term trend method and CDM reforestation methodology were used. Using the method of biomass expansion factor to analyze the data, it is concluded that the financial net present value of non-carbon sink afforestation tree species is negative, while the carbon sink afforestation is positive and significantly higher than that of non-carbon sink afforestation scenario under the same project period of 60 years. When the project period is the best for each tree species, the average project period of carbon sink afforestation of study tree species is 16 years higher than that of non-carbon sink afforestation, and the financial net present value is 4.41 times that of non-carbon sink afforestation. The larger the scale is, the lower the project development cost will be. By analyzing the financial NPV of carbon sink afforestation unit area under different scales, it is concluded that with the increase of scale, the change of financial NPV caused by the increase of area gradually decreases. When the project area is less than 500 hectares, the change of financial internal rate of return is relatively obvious, and when more than 500 hectares, the change is relatively less obvious. In terms of tree species, it is similar to traditional afforestation. The economic benefit of fast-growing tree species is still higher than that of slow-growing tree species in carbon sink afforestation scenarios, but with the increase of project period, the economic benefit of slow-growing tree species will gradually increase, even exceed that of fast-growing tree species. This paper analyzes the priority of tree species selection, project duration selection and project scale selection for forestry carbon sequestration projects. At the same time, it expounds the different project development standards at home and abroad, and puts forward some suggestions for the selection of project development standards. The paper also explains the matters needing attention and the risk of forestry carbon sink investment. China is still in the primary stage of forestry carbon sink development, and there are still many problems to be solved urgently. Regular organization of forestry carbon sink related knowledge training will improve the cognition level of forestry carbon sink in China, and provide technical guarantee for the development of forestry carbon sink by providing targeted support to forestry carbon sink consulting organization. It is an important task to further promote the development of forestry carbon sequestration in China by comprehensively planning the priority development area of forestry carbon sinks. At the same time, we should also begin to explore the construction of carbon futures market while building the spot market of carbon trading. At a time when the national carbon trading market is booming, Sichuan should also speed up the filing of carbon trading institutions and initially launch carbon emissions quota trading.
【学位授予单位】：四川省社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.2;X196

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