基于边际模型的城镇化进程污染效应极限及演化趋势研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 02:20

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：边际污染效应　出处：《自然资源学报》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：探索城镇化演进的边际污染效应极限,对指导城镇化健康、可持续发展具有重要意义。论文以安徽省为例,选取工业废水等8项指标,采用熵权赋值法,对污染综合指数进行了评价;运用LMDI分解模型,对城镇化进程引致的污染效应进行了测算;基于经济学边际理论,构建了城镇化进程边际污染效应变化率模型,通过最佳拟合优度曲线估算及曲线拐点求导判别方法,对城镇化进程边际污染效应极限及演化趋势进行了测度,结果表明:1)污染综合指数由2000年的0.153 0上升至2012年的0.645 3;2)城镇化进程边际污染效应由2001年的0.006 3增至2012年的0.012 5,两者呈同向增长态势;3)2020年城镇化进程累计边际污染效应将达0.379;4)城镇化进程边际污染效应变化率曲线呈正N型,第一极值点出现于2004—2005年,第二极值点出现于2013年,目前,城镇化进程边际污染效应处于第二极值点右侧上升通道。论文基于城市发展理论对研究结果进行了机理解析,并从依靠科技创新、实现城镇化发展方式由要素驱动向创新驱动转变等4个方面提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to explore the limit of marginal pollution effect of urbanization evolution for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of urbanization. Taking Anhui Province as an example, 8 indexes, such as industrial wastewater, are selected, and entropy weight assignment method is adopted. The pollution comprehensive index is evaluated, the pollution effect caused by urbanization process is calculated by using LMDI decomposition model, and the change rate model of marginal pollution effect in urbanization process is constructed based on economic marginal theory. The limit of marginal pollution effect and the evolution trend of urbanization process are measured by estimating the curve of optimum fit and determining the inflection point of the curve. The results show that: 1) the composite index of pollution increased from 0.153 in 2000 to 0.645 3 in 2012) the marginal pollution effect of urbanization increased from 0.006 3 in 2001 to 0.012 5 in 2012. 3) the cumulative marginal pollution in the urbanization process in 2020. The change rate curve of marginal pollution effect in urbanization process is positive N-type. The first extreme appeared in 2004-2005 and the second in 2013. At present, the marginal pollution effect in the urbanization process is in the right rising channel of the second extreme point. This paper analyzes the mechanism of the research results based on the urban development theory. Policy suggestions are put forward from four aspects: depending on scientific and technological innovation to realize the transformation of urbanization development mode from factor driven to innovation driven.
【作者单位】：池州学院资源环境与旅游系;
【基金】：安徽省教育厅高校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2014A175) 安徽省社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2014D53)~~
【分类号】：X321

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