社会经济发展对三峡澎溪河流域氮磷负荷的影响

发布时间：2018-03-28 13:19

本文选题：社会经济发展　切入点：氮磷浓度　出处：《人民长江》2016年22期

【摘要】：为了研究社会经济发展对三峡库区澎溪河流域氮和磷负荷过程的影响,基于GIS技术和分布式非点源模型-SWAT,依据2004,2008年和2013年《重庆市统计年鉴》中农村人口数、GDP及城镇化率等社会经济数据,结合流域土地利用演变情况,通过改进SWAT模型管理措施功能,模拟分析了该流域氮和磷负荷过程变化规律。结果表明:径流量、总氮和总磷误差决定系数均在0.6以上,模拟结果可靠;农村地区总氮、总磷年际浓度平均降低了60.6%和50.2%,负荷呈减少趋势;城镇地区总氮、总磷年际浓度平均增加了34.3%和4.4%,负荷呈增加趋势。总氮和总磷负荷变化的原因是大量农村人口进入城市,耕地面积减少;工业发展和城镇化建设加快,城区人口密度增加,城市垃圾增多等。研究成果可以为三峡库区水环境保护和管理提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:In order to study the effects of social and economic development on the nitrogen and phosphorus loading processes in the Penghuxi River basin in the three Gorges Reservoir area, Based on GIS technology and distributed non-point source model (-SWAT-SWAT), based on the social and economic data of rural population and urbanization rate in the Statistical Yearbook of Chongqing in 2004, 2008 and 2013, combined with the evolution of land use in river basin. Through improving the function of SWAT model management measures, the variation law of nitrogen and phosphorus load process in this basin is simulated and analyzed. The results show that the determination coefficient of runoff, total nitrogen and total phosphorus error is above 0. 6, the simulation results are reliable, the total nitrogen in rural areas, the total nitrogen in rural areas, The average annual concentration of total phosphorus decreased by 60.6% and 50.2%, and the load showed a decreasing trend, while the annual concentration of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in urban areas increased by 34.3% and 4.4% on average, and the load showed an increasing trend. The reason for the change of total nitrogen and total phosphorus load was that a large number of rural people entered the city. The research results can provide scientific basis for the protection and management of water environment in the three Gorges Reservoir area, such as the decrease of cultivated land area, the acceleration of industrial development and urbanization, the increase of urban population density and the increase of urban garbage.
【作者单位】：武汉大学资源与环境科学学院;重庆市环境监测中心;
【基金】：国家“十二五”重大科技专项水专项项目“三峡库区及上游流域水环境风险评估与预警技术研究与示范课题”(2013ZX07503-001)
【分类号】：X52

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