基于不确定性分析的土壤-水稻系统镉污染综合风险评估

发布时间：2018-05-03 09:16

本文选题：累积风险 + 健康风险　；参考：《环境科学》2016年12期

【摘要】：从不确定性角度评估土壤-水稻系统镉(Cd)累积风险有助于风险决策的科学性和合理性.本研究应用物种敏感性分布模型(SSD)、健康风险评价模型及Monte Carlo模拟方法分析湖南省攸县土壤-水稻系统Cd富集特征,土壤Cd累积风险和稻米Cd健康风险.结果表明攸县稻米Cd富集因子(PUF)平均水平为1.86,多数Cd超标稻米样品来自土壤酸化严重的区域;土壤Cd污染负荷系数为2.4,隶属于强污染水平;在当前土壤Cd累积条件下,10年后研究区土壤Cd含量处于中度污染水平的概率达到90.4%;健康风险评价显示研究区成人经食用大米Cd平均摄入量(以BW计)为2.9μg·(kg·d)-1,有93.9%的概率高于WHO推荐标准.稻米Cd健康风险指数(HRI)主要集中在2.1~4.7之间,健康风险水平较高.当土壤pH5.5时,HRI1的概率为95.3%,土壤pH6时,HRI1的概率降为68.1%.
[Abstract]:The assessment of the cumulative risk of cadmium (Cd) in the soil rice system is helpful to the scientific and rational risk decision. This study applies the species sensitivity distribution model (SSD), the health risk assessment model and the Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the Cd enrichment characteristics of the soil rice system in Youxian, Hunan Province, the accumulation risk of soil Cd and the rice Cd health. The results showed that the average level of Cd enrichment factor (PUF) in Youxian rice was 1.86, most of the Cd super standard rice samples came from the serious soil acidification region, and the soil Cd pollution load coefficient was 2.4, which belonged to the strong pollution level. Under the current Cd accumulation conditions, the probability of the soil Cd content in the study area was 90.4% at moderate pollution level after 10 years. The health risk assessment showed that the average Cd intake of edible rice (BW) was 2.9 mu g (kg. D) -1 in the study area. The probability of 93.9% was higher than the WHO recommendation. The health risk index (HRI) of rice Cd was mainly concentrated in 2.1~4.7, and the level of health risk was higher. When soil pH5.5, the probability of HRI1 was 95.3%. 68.1%.

【作者单位】：中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41173123) 中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室项目(SKLURE2013-1-04)
【分类号】：X53;X56;X820.4

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