新疆工业分行业碳排放问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 18:52

本文选题：碳排放 + 工业行业　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前人类经济社会的发展不可避免的伴随着化石能源的消耗和二氧化碳排放量的增加,随着温室气体的不断排放,全球气候变暖已成为当今世界各国面临的主要问题之一,如果不能尽快解决这一问题,环境因素将成为阻碍今后世界经济发展的一大障碍。2009年在哥本哈根举行的联合国气候大会上,中国政府承诺到2020年,中国碳排放强度要比2005年下降40%-45%,这一承诺已经纳入我国经济发展的长期规划之中。新疆作为我国的一个能源消耗大省,在工业化进程中二氧化碳排放不断增加,在减缓碳排放、采用低碳发展模式方面仍任重道远。在此背景下,研究新疆工业各行业的碳排放问题,对减少新疆碳排放,实现经济低碳转型具有一定的理论意义和现实意义。本文首先介绍了研究新疆工业各行业碳排放问题的目的、论文的主要内容和运用的方法。其次,通过对相关文献的回顾与分析,阐述了分析碳排放影响因素常用的几种分解方法,并选择了指数因素分解法(IDA)中的对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)方法作为本文的研究方法。从新疆产业结构和工业结构演进的角度出发,分析了三次产业及各产业内部结构的演变与碳排放的关系,建立了适用于新疆工业碳排放领域的LMDI因素分解模型,碳排放的影响因素包括:工业规模、行业结构、能源强度、能源结构。第三,测算出工业各行业2000-2012年碳排放情况,分析其变化趋势,根据碳排放量的大小对36个行业进行分类,分别分析各影响因素对每一类行业碳排放变化的影响程度。最后,为了深入、有效地研究各因素对工业不同碳排放行业碳排放的长期作用规律,本文又进行了多因素回归分析。研究结果显示,2000年之后,新疆工业碳排放增速加快,不同行业之间碳排放差异较大,其中重工业碳排放量明显高于轻工业;从LMDI模型分析结果可以看出,2000-2012年工业规模、行业结构、能耗强度和能源结构四个因素对工业总体碳排放均有正向推动作用,工业规模效应对工业碳排放变化的贡献最大,能源强度效应次之,能源结构效应贡献最小。从不同碳排放行业来看,四个因素对三大行业碳排放的影响程度有所差别。从累积效应来看,工业规模、行业结构、能耗强度和能源结构四个因素都对高排放行业产生正效应;工业规模和行业结构对中排放行业产生正效应,而能源强度和能源结构是负效应;工业规模以及能源结构正向影响低排放行业,行业结构和能源强度对低碳排行业产生负效应。从三类碳排放行业面板数据的回归结果可以看出,长期中各因素对三类行业碳排放变动的影响程度不尽相同,表现为不同因素在三类行业的回归方程中回归系数的差异。长期中,行业结构显著影响高、中排放行业,但对低碳排放行业的碳排放影响不显著;能源强度对三类碳排放行业的影响均显著,弹性系数也较大,是影响各类行业碳排放的重要因素之一;能源结构对中碳排放行业影响不显著,对高、低碳排放行业显著。总体上,行业结构、能源强度和能源结构是影响新疆工业碳排放的主要因素,而以行业从业人员人均产值衡量的行业发展状况对长期新疆工业碳排放的影响较弱。
[Abstract]:At present, the development of the human economy and society inevitably follows the consumption of fossil energy and the increase of carbon dioxide emissions. With the continuous emission of greenhouse gases, global warming has become one of the main problems facing all countries in the world. If we can not solve this problem as soon as possible, the environmental factors will become a hindrance to the future world. A major obstacle to economic development in the United Nations climate conference held in Copenhagen in Copenhagen, the Chinese government promised by 2020 that China's carbon emission intensity should be reduced by 40%-45% than in 2005. This commitment has been included in the long-term planning of China's economic development. As a major energy consumption province in China, Xinjiang is two oxidation in the process of industrialization. In this context, the study of carbon emissions in various industries in Xinjiang has a certain theoretical and practical significance for reducing carbon emissions in Xinjiang and realizing the transformation of low-carbon economy. This paper first introduces the carbon emissions in the industry of Xinjiang. The purpose of the problem, the main content of the paper and the method of application. Secondly, through the review and analysis of relevant literature, several decomposition methods used to analyze the influence factors of carbon emissions are expounded, and the logarithmic mean dedi exponent decomposition (LMDI) method in the index factor decomposition (IDA) method is selected as the research method of this paper. From the Xinjiang industry Based on the evolution of structure and industrial structure, the relationship between the evolution of three industries and the internal structure of various industries and the carbon emissions is analyzed. The LMDI factor decomposition model suitable for industrial carbon emission in Xinjiang is established. The influence factors of carbon emissions include industrial scale, industry structure, energy intensity, energy structure. Third 2000-2012 years of carbon emissions in the industry, analyze its change trend, classify the 36 industries according to the size of carbon emissions, analyze the impact of each factor on the change of carbon emissions in each category of industry respectively. Finally, in order to further study the long-term effects of various factors on the carbon emissions of different industrial carbon emissions industry, this paper is an effective study. The results of multi factor regression analysis showed that after 2000, Xinjiang industrial carbon emissions increased faster, the carbon emissions from different industries were different, and the heavy industrial carbon emissions were significantly higher than those of the light industry. The results of the LMDI model analysis showed that 2000-2012 years of industrial scale, industry structure, energy consumption intensity and energy structure were four. The industrial scale effect has the greatest contribution to the overall industrial carbon emissions, the industrial scale effect has the greatest contribution to the industrial carbon emissions, the energy intensity effect is the second, the energy structure effect contributes minimal. From the different carbon emission industries, the four factors have a different impact on the carbon emissions in the three major industries. Industry structure, energy intensity and energy structure have positive effects on high emission industries; industrial scale and industry structure have positive effects on the medium emission industry, while energy intensity and energy structure are negative effects; industrial scale and energy structure are positively affecting low emission industry, industry structure and energy intensity on low carbon rankings production. Negative effect. From the regression results of the panel data of the three types of carbon emissions industry, it can be seen that the influence degree of the long-term factors on the carbon emission changes in the three industries is different, showing the difference of the regression coefficient between the different factors in the regression equation of the three industries. In the long term, the industry structure has a significant impact on the high, middle emission industry, but the low carbon emissions. The impact of carbon emissions in the industry is not significant; energy intensity has a significant impact on the three types of carbon emission industries, and the elastic coefficient is also large. It is one of the important factors affecting the carbon emissions of various industries. The energy structure has no significant impact on the medium carbon emissions industry, and the industry structure, energy intensity and energy structure in general are obvious to the high and low carbon emissions industries. It is the main factor affecting the industrial carbon emissions in Xinjiang, while the industry development status, measured by the per capita output value of the industry employees, has a weak impact on the long-term industrial carbon emissions in Xinjiang.

【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F427;X22

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